Kinaxis: Buy, Sell or Hold?

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained a “Sector Perform” rating and C$210.00 price target on Kinaxis (Kinaxis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KXS) in a Feb. 25 equity research note, as he outlined key metrics to watch in the upcoming reporting cycle.

Toner said that while AI infrastructure names have seen mixed performance following a late-2025 correction, investors remain focused on execution and operational durability.

For Kinaxis, he identified Annual Recurring Revenue growth as the “North Star,” looking for steady double-digit expansion, ideally above 20%, after accelerating to 17% in Q3/25.

He is also watching the company’s “Rule of 40” performance — the sum of revenue growth and EBITDA margin — as a benchmark for SaaS health, as well as sales cycle velocity and commentary around enterprise decision-making in a volatile macro backdrop.

Toner said partner-led deployments will be another key indicator, as greater reliance on implementation partners could support margin expansion over time. He also noted this will be the first quarter under new CEO Razat Gaurav.

Toner’s C$210.00 target is based on a discounted cash flow model using a 10.6% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth rate.

The analyst expects Kinaxis to generate $134.3-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $543.1-million in fiscal 2025, improving to $153.1-million in EBITDA on revenue of $618.8-million in fiscal 2026.

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