Analyst loves this Canadian specialty pharma stock

Research Capital analyst Andre Uddin maintained his “Buy” rating and C$5.55 target on Medexus Pharmaceuticals (Medexus Pharmaceuticals Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDP) following its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results.

For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Medexus reported total revenue of US$25.3-million, in line with Uddin’s estimate and broadly consistent with consensus, but down 16% year-over-year from US$30.0-million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at US$4.5-million, ahead of his US$1.7-million forecast and above consensus of US$4.0-million, compared with US$5.8-million a year earlier. Net income was US$0.1-million, or US$0.002 per fully diluted share, versus Uddin’s projected loss and ahead of consensus expectations.

As of quarter-end, the company held US$15.0-million in cash and US$25.4-million in long-term debt.

Uddin highlighted steady progress for Grafapex, which generated US$2.0-million in product revenue in the quarter, below his US$3–4-million expectation but showing sequential improvement. Management expects underlying patient demand of US$3.0–4.0-million in fiscal Q4 2026, compared with US$2.2-million, US$2.1-million and US$2.6-million in the prior three quarters.

Grafapex has secured formulary inclusion at 46 institutions, representing 26% of the approximately 180 U.S. transplant centres. Of those, 75% have placed orders in the past nine months and 41 institutions have reordered, suggesting what Uddin characterized as solid early adoption. Roughly one-third of transplant centres currently have Grafapex under review. He continues to model peak sales above US$100-million, supported by NTAP reimbursement and a focus on adult transplant centres, which account for about 85% of the addressable market.

Across the broader portfolio, Trecondyv unit demand in Canada rose 51% on a trailing 12-month basis, Ixinity unit demand in the U.S. increased 2%, and Rasuvo demand rose 3%. Metoject patient unit demand in Canada declined 6% due to generic competition, while Rupall has also begun facing generic entrants following loss of exclusivity in January 2025.

Uddin said Medexus remains one of the cheaper Canadian specialty pharma names and expects growth to reaccelerate in fiscal 2027 as Grafapex scales. With Grafapex representing a higher-margin asset, he believes multiple expansion is possible as commercialization progresses.

Uddin forecasts Medexus will generate Adjusted EBITDA of US$14.7-million on revenue of US$100.1-million in fiscal 2026. He expects those figures to improve modestly to Adjusted EBITDA of US$15.3-million on revenue of US$101.7-million in fiscal 2027.

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