This analyst just chopped his price target on Galaxy Digital Holdings

In a Jan. 27 preview note, ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained an “Outperform” rating on Galaxy Digital Holdings (Galaxy Digital Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:GLXY), while trimming his one-year price target to US$70.00 from US$75.00 ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, due before the market opens on Feb. 3.

Toner said the quarter will represent another stress test for Galaxy’s risk-management framework following a record Q3, as sharply weaker crypto markets are expected to drive a significant sequential decline in revenue and net income. He said the pullback in bitcoin, ether and solana prices during the quarter should weigh on Treasury & Corporate results, even as the Digital Asset segment is expected to remain adjusted-gross-profit positive.

“We expect a meaningful revenue step-down following Galaxy’s Q3 windfall,” Toner said, adding that the sequential declines in BTC, ETH and SOL will likely result in balance-sheet-driven losses flowing through net income. He now forecasts a Q4 EPS loss of US$(1.16).

Toner estimates Treasury & Corporate will post a gross-profit loss of about US$297-million and a net loss of roughly US$398-million in the quarter, reflecting mark-to-market impacts as BTC, ETH and SOL fell approximately 23%, 28% and 30%, respectively. He also lowered his Digital Asset adjusted gross profit assumptions to reflect reduced activity in less volatile trading conditions.

Offsetting the near-term pressure, Toner pointed to several constructive developments late in 2025 and early 2026, most notably regulatory approval for 833 megawatts of power capacity at Galaxy’s Helios site in West Texas. Revenue recognition for Phase I at Helios is expected in the first half of 2026, and Toner said additional high-performance computing (HPC) agreements could materially increase valuation.

“The approval of 833MW at Helios positions Galaxy to announce another HPC deal,” he said, noting that incremental hyperscaler agreements could add US$10–US$20 per share to his HPC valuation.

Toner reduced his target price to reflect lower expected 2026 Digital Asset gross profits but reiterated his positive long-term view. His US$70 target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, applying an 18x multiple to 2026 adjusted gross profit for Galaxy’s core digital asset operations, with HPC contributing roughly US$38.50 per share in contracted value and upside optionality.

-30-