Shopify still has big upside, RBC says

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Shopify (Shopify Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:SHOP) on Jan. 7 and set a US $200.00 price target, implying roughly 27% upside over the next 12 months.

The street average target stands at US$179.27.

“Shares of Shopify [are] expected to see continued robust, above market returns,” Treiber said, adding that while gains across Canadian technology stocks may broaden, Shopify remains the dominant driver of the S&P/TSX Information Technology sub-index, accounting for about 62% of its weight.

Looking ahead, Treiber forecasts Shopify will deliver growth supported by continued market share gains, resilient consumer spending and adoption of new products. He also expects incremental margin expansion and a sustained premium valuation.

The call follows strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, reported in early November, when Shopify posted 32% year-over-year revenue growth and an 18% free cash flow margin, marking its ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit free cash flow margins. Gross merchandise value rose 32% to US$92.0-billion, while revenue increased to US$2.84-billion.

“We build. We ship. We grow. That’s the model — and it’s running at full speed,” president Harley Finkelstein said at the time, pointing to broad-based merchant growth and continued momentum heading into the peak retail season.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Shopify guided to mid-to-high-twenties percentage revenue growth year over year and free cash flow margins slightly above Q3 levels, reinforcing Treiber’s view that the company can sustain both growth and profitability into 2026.