Here’s why you should buy MDA Space stock

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley initiated coverage of MDA Space with a “Buy” rating and $50.00 target on Dec. 10, arguing the recent sell-off has created “a compelling entry point” into one of the few Canadian companies positioned to scale meaningfully with the global space-economy expansion.

MDA now trades at just under 9× his F2027 Adjusted EBITDA forecast — a 65–69% discount to closest peers that trade at 26×–28×, despite already generating positive EBITDA and EPS while many peers remain loss-making.

Brampton-based MDA Space develops satellites, robotics and space operations systems, and geointelligence solutions. Its heritage includes the Canadarm and RADARSAT programs, and it is currently developing Canadarm3 for the CSA’s contribution to NASA’s Gateway lunar station. The company operates in Canada, the U.S., the U.K. and Israel.

Stanley said the stock’s 47% pullback from August highs reflects the fallout from one contract cancellation and concerns about a second, both tied to competitive pressure from SpaceX rather than weakening demand.

He argued these risks are “more than priced in,” pointing to a $4.4-billion backlog (2.7× annual revenue) and a $20-billion pipeline with “more than a handful” of $1-billion-plus opportunities. Renewed private-capital interest, including multiple US$100-million+ financings and York Space Systems’ recent S-1 filing, reinforces his view that investor appetite for space assets remains resilient.

Macro tailwinds further strengthen the thesis, he said. According to Novaspace, the global space economy reached US$600-billion in 2024, growing 17% year-over-year, roughly the size of Sweden’s GDP. The World Economic Forum expects it to surpass US$1.8-trillion by 2035, approaching Mexico’s current GDP, implying a 12% CAGR. Manufacturing, where MDA primarily competes, is a US$41-billion segment nearly twice the size of Launch Services.

Defence spending represents a second structural driver. Stanley highlighted the U.S. administration’s proposed Golden Dome program, a three-year, US$175-billion initiative for space-based missile-defence infrastructure, and the commitment by NATO members to lift defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, including 1.5% dedicated to critical defence and security infrastructure. Satellite communications and space-based systems qualify under this framework. Germany alone plans to spend US$41-billion on defence-space technologies over five years, a more than 35× increase from current levels.

Stanley values MDA at 17× his F2027 Adjusted EBITDA estimate, aligning the name with higher-quality, cash-generating peers while remaining below the multiples for AST SpaceMobile (42×) and Rocket Lab (163×). Those comps would imply theoretical upside to $98 and $388 per share, respectively. Near-term catalysts include contract awards, potential M&A, Q4 results in early March, and prospects for a future U.S. listing.

Stanley forecasts $316-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $1.60-billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, increasing to $347-million on $1.79-billion in fiscal 2026.

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