Bitfarms. Buy, Sell or Hold?

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner has resumed coverage of Bitfarms (Bitfarms Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:BITF) with an “Outperform” rating and a C$7.00 one-year target, saying the company’s liquidity position, expanding power pipeline and move into high-performance computing and AI hosting create a stronger long-term value case.

Toner came off restriction on the name on Nov. 3 and issued a Q3/25 preview ahead of Bitfarms’ results on Nov. 13.

ATB expects Bitfarms to exit the quarter with 17.7 EH/s of operational hash rate, down from 18.6 EH/s in Q2, and to have mined 703 BTC. Revenue is forecast at $81.3-million, up 73.5% year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA of $28.3-million, up 116%.

He said ATB will be watching for more clarity around Bitfarms’ shift toward HPC and AI hosting.

“We will look for additional updates around management’s HPC/AI strategy, including further transparency on expected economics, suitable sites and ongoing conversations with suppliers and potential customers.”

Toner highlighted two recent financing moves that materially increase Bitfarms’ balance sheet flexibility. On Oct. 10, the company converted its previously announced US$300-million private debt facility into project-specific financing for the Panther Creek, Pennsylvania campus, increasing the draw to US$100-million to accelerate equipment purchases and substation development. On Oct. 21, Bitfarms closed a US$588-million convertible debenture, partly structured with a covered-call component to reduce dilution. Bitfarms now has approximately $1-billion in liquidity.

With more than 1 GW in its energy development pipeline, Toner said ATB is “optimistic on BITF’s HPC progress and potential.” The firm’s valuation includes $1.8-billion, or roughly $3.00 per share, of HPC optionality based on the probability that Bitfarms advances its 1.4 GW HPC pipeline.

ATB’s C$7.00 target is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying 6x 2026E Adjusted EBITDA for the mining business and assigning value to HPC based on a 50% probability that Bitfarms develops 300 MW at $7-million per MW, plus a smaller likelihood of additional U.S. build-out.

“Given management’s more developed roadmap, the suitability of its Pennsylvania sites for HPC/AI, and recent financing, we now have increased confidence the company will be successful in signing a long-term lease following an infrastructure build-out,” Toner said.

The analyst said Bitfarms should generate $167.9-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $313.5-million of revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to $193.4-million on $404.4-million in 2026.

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