Ahead of Q2 results, is Tantalus Systems a buy?

Beacon Securities analyst Gabriel Leung noted in a July 30 report that Tantalus Systems (Tantalus Systems Holding Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:GRID) is set to report its Q2 2025 results after market close on Wednesday, August 6. He is maintaining a “Buy” rating and C$5.50 target price, which is based on a 3.5x EV/Sales multiple, in line with peers.

Leung expects Q2 revenue of $12.2 million and an EBITDA loss of $214,000, compared to consensus estimates of $12.3 million in revenue and a $100,000 EBITDA loss. His forecast reflects roughly 13% year-over-year organic growth, down from 27% growth in Q1. EBITDA is also projected to decline from $316,000 in Q1, remaining flat on a year-over-year basis.

Tantalus Systems, based in Vancouver, provides ‘smart’ grid technology to around 320 public power and electric co-op utilities.

“On the call, we expect the focus will be around the company’s TRUSense pipeline (recall that last quarter there were 33 utilities on trial deployments), along with a progress update on the recently announced TRUSense deployment with EPB in Chattanooga,” he said. “We also expect commentary around any impact on customer decision cycles stemming from U.S. tariffs.

“Recall that customers had to deal with 10% base tariffs during Q2 (of which Tantalus absorbed 5%).”

Tantalus could expect to face higher tariffs following a newly negotiated deal between the U.S. and the Philippines, where it manufactures its hardware. Tariffs are projected to rise to 19%, with the company continuing to absorb 5% while passing the remaining 14% on to customers.

“We believe that Tantalus’ utility customers have been preparing for the tariff headwinds,” Leung said. “As such, we do not anticipate any material impact on existing contracts/deployments, although we will see if there is any potential impact on deals in the pipeline.”

Leung expects Tantalus to post $1.3-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $51.5-million in revenue for fiscal 2025, improving to $2.6-million and $59.5-million, respectively, in 2026.

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