In a June 6 earnings analysis, Roth Capital Markets analyst Taz Koujalgi raised his price target on Rubrik (Rubrik Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:RBRK) to $107 from $97, citing upside potential relative to peers and improving growth expectations, while maintaining a “Buy” rating on the stock.
Rubrik provides cloud data management and security solutions, including backup, ransomware recovery, threat analytics and cyber recovery. Founded in 2013, the company is based in Palo Alto, California.
Koujalgi said Rubrik posted strong Q1 FY26 results, with revenue of $278.5-million up 49% year-over-year and ahead of both guidance and Street estimates. Subscription revenue, ARR, and cloud metrics also topped expectations, with cloud ARR reaching $972-million. Operating margin was -7%, better than the Street’s -21%, and free cash flow came in at $33-million versus $24.5-million expected. Rubrik raised both its Q2 and full-year revenue and ARR guidance.
‘Cybersecurity vendors have reported mixed earnings this quarter, calling out macro uncertainty impacting their results,” Koujalgi said. “RBRK said that cyber resiliency is the top cybersecurity priority, and it is not seeing any change in the demand environment. The company also said that it is operating in a large ~$50B market and identity security and identity resilience are further expanding the market, and at its scale of ~$1.2B ARR, it is not opportunity constrained.”
Koujalgi expects Rubrik to post an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $97-million on $1.18 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026, improving from a prior estimate of a $112-million loss on $1.16-billion. For fiscal 2027, he sees further improvement to a $58-million loss on $1.49-billion in revenue, slightly better than his earlier forecast of a $60-million loss on $1.49-billion. The upward revisions are due to growing confidence in Rubrik’s revenue momentum and operational leverage.
Koujalgi said Rubrik beat its revenue guidance by about 6.7% in Q1 FY26, reporting $17.5-million above the high end—a slightly stronger beat than its first post-IPO quarter (Q1 FY25), which came in about 6% above Street estimates. Some of the Q1 FY26 upside came from non-recurring revenue.
“However, the beat in the quarter was helped by the non-recurring tailwind being a few points higher than the company’s expectations,” Koujalgi said. “RBRK did not disclose what its original expectations were, but said the total tailwind was ~7 point or ~$13M. If we assume that the tailwind was higher by ~2 points vs. original expectations, then that contributed ~$3M – $4M to the beat. Adjusting for that, the beat would be ~5%, in line with the FQ1’25 beat.”
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About The Author /
Rod Weatherbie is a journalist based in Prince Edward Island. Since 2004, he has written extensively about the Canadian property and casualty insurance landscape. He was also a founder and contributing editor for a Toronto-based arts website and a PEI-based food magazine. His fiction and poetry have been featured in The Fiddlehead, The Antigonish Review, and Juniper.
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