GOOGL price target chopped at Roth

Rohit Kulkarni, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Roth is maintaining his “Buy” rating for Alphabet Inc. (Alphabet Inc. Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:GOOGL), with a 12-month price target of $180.00.

At the time of his April 17 report, the stock was trading at $151.16, suggesting a return potential of 19%.

Kulkarni lowered his price target from $220 to $180 due to reduced expectations for growth.

Roth revised its revenue forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026 and cut its earnings per share estimates by a similar margin. This is due to concerns about weaker-than-usual seasonal performance in the second and third quarters and slower year-over-year growth across Alphabet’s core businesses, including Search, YouTube, and Cloud. The new valuation is based on a lower earnings multiple of 18 times projected 2026 GAAP EPS, excluding cash, compared to the previous multiple of approximately 21.5 times.

Regulatory uncertainty also played a role in the revised outlook.

A U.S. District Court recently ruled that Google engaged in anticompetitive behaviour in the online ad-tech market, which may lead to structural remedies such as a potential breakup of its ad management business.

“The case now moves to the remedies phase, with a briefing schedule and hearing date to be set to determine penalties,” Kulkarni said. “The government will lay out the penalties, including a breakup of Google Ad Manager (DFP + AdX). Most likely, we expect Google to file its objections and may float softer, ‘behavioral’ fixes (e.g., auction‑design changes or data‑separation pledges).”

Despite these headwinds, the analyst maintains a Buy rating, pointing to the company’s long-term value and the potential upside from assets like Waymo and other initiatives grouped under its ‘Other Bets’ segment.

Kulkarni expects Alphabet to generate EPS of $9.61 on $375.8-billion in revenue for fiscal 2025. For fiscal 2026, those figures are projected to rise to EPS of $10.04 on $399.6-billion in revenue.

Kulkarni said there are other possible winners from the Ad-Tech lawsuit and outlined some potential outcomes.

In one scenario, if Google is required to separate its Ad Exchange from its Publisher Ad Server, also known as Google Ad Manager, it could eliminate the built-in advantage AdX currently has. As he put it, this would “make header-bidding a true level playing field.” If that happens, more ad traffic and revenue could shift to Google’s competitors, particularly independent sell-side platforms like Magnite and Pubmatic.

In another scenario, he said, if AdX is no longer integrated within the publisher’s ad server, auctions could become more open and transparent.

Kulkarni said this could lead to “reduced bid shading and fee opacity,” allowing ad buyers to retain more value. In that case, the likely beneficiaries would be buy-side platforms and agency trading desks such as The Trade Desk and Criteo.