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What will happen to the housing market if Trump wins​?

The upcoming U.S. federal elections, scheduled for November 5, 2024, will decide the next president, vice president, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 34 Senate seats.

This election cycle follows a period of political shifts and heightened attention to critical national issues, including immigration, abortion, and the economy​. The presidential race is particularly noteworthy, with Kamala Harris emerging as the presumptive Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy in mid-2024. On the Republican side, Donald Trump remains the leading contender, with other high-profile Republicans, like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, previously running but later suspending their campaigns. Both Trump and Harris are presenting distinct approaches to core issues, such as economic policy, immigration, and abortion, which have become pivotal points for voters in this election​

This election is expected to reflect ongoing political divisions in the U.S., with polls showing confidence among voters is divided between the candidates. Trump maintains stronger backing on economic and immigration issues, while Harris holds an edge on abortion policy and racial matters. Voter turnout will also play a critical role, given that these elections could reshape the balance of power in Congress, alongside selecting the president for the next term.

Housing values and affordability are key concerns in the 2024 federal election, reflecting widespread frustration with soaring home prices and rents. Home prices have risen over 40% since the pandemic, and median rents are up by more than 20%. Younger voters, in particular, are deeply affected, struggling with the dream of homeownership amidst rising mortgage rates and expensive markets. The issue also affects homeowners through higher property taxes and insurance premiums, driven by inflation and climate impacts. Although federal policy impacts housing indirectly, voters are urged to watch for local candidates promoting pro-housing policies, as zoning and development rules are largely set at state and municipal levels. The election’s outcome could shape housing policy through tax credits, subsidies, and other incentives, but the Federal Reserve’s role in interest rates will continue to influence affordability most directly.

The candidates’ stances on housing reflect broader economic narratives, with both parties attempting to address these challenges through different policy lenses. This focus underscores the importance of housing in shaping not just financial well-being but also political preferences in the upcoming election.

What will happen to the housing market if Trump wins​?

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, several key shifts could impact the housing market. His policies may focus on reducing government regulations, encouraging home construction, and potentially easing lending standards, which could stimulate housing demand. However, relaxed regulations might also introduce financial risks, recalling the instability seen during the 2008 crisis.

Trump is likely to push for lower interest rates to boost the economy, which could make mortgages more affordable and spur home sales, though actual rates will still depend on the Federal Reserve’s independent policies. The potential for a decrease in mortgage rates could benefit both homebuyers and current homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages, improving financial stability.

However, there are concerns that some of his policies, such as renewed trade wars, could increase the cost of building materials, slowing down new construction and worsening the existing housing shortage. Tax policies under a Trump administration could also favor real estate investors, potentially shifting the market toward more rental properties and reducing homeownership opportunities for individuals.

What will happen to the housing market if Kamala Harris wins​?

If Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election, her administration aims to tackle the housing affordability crisis through targeted interventions. A key component of her plan is a $25,000 down payment assistance program for first-time homebuyers, designed to make homeownership more accessible. This initiative focuses on helping individuals who are financially close to affording a home but lack the upfront cash, addressing one of the main barriers to homeownership today.

Harris’s broader housing strategy emphasizes increasing the housing supply by adding three million new homes within four years. This includes expanding the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) to incentivize affordable housing development. She also proposes tax incentives for developers to create more starter homes, aiming to address the current shortage of affordable entry-level housing.

While these policies are ambitious, they require strong political support in Congress to be implemented effectively. Analysts predict that if executed well, these measures could ease affordability issues without inflating housing prices, especially if they remain targeted at lower-income and first-generation buyers. However, the success of Harris’s plan will also depend on cooperation between federal and state governments, especially regarding zoning reforms and infrastructure investment to encourage new construction in high-demand areas.

Overall, a Harris administration would likely bring more federal involvement in addressing housing inequality, with a focus on affordability, first-time homeownership, and increased supply, but the path to realizing these goals will depend on legislative dynamics and sustained political will across multiple levels of government.

 

 

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