Is First Solar stock still a buy?

The stock has been on a good run, but Roth MKM analyst Philip Shen thinks there is still upside to First Solar (First Solar Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, NASDAQ:FSLR)

In a research update to clients April 17, Shen maintained his “Buy” rating and price target of $230.00 on FSLR.

Ahead of the company’s first quarter results, which are due May 1, the analyst summarized FSLR for investors.

“Heading into Q1, we remain bullish on FSLR. While there is continued risk of a light bookings quarter, we see meaningful upside from policy tailwinds such as new SEA AD/CVD tariffs, 201 bifacial exemption removal, UFLPA Tier 2 enforcement, Auxin, FEOC language, Rubio bill, NO GOTION Act, etc. While shares have traded up ~20% since the Q4 call vs. TAN down ~5%, after removing ~$100/share of 45X, We estimate that FSLR is currently priced at only ~9x our 2025E EPS,” he said.

Shen thinks FSLR will post EPS of $4.17 on revenue of $4.52-billion in fiscal 2024. He expects those numbers will improve to EPS of $8.59 on a topline of $5.77-billion in fiscal 2025.

“Overall thoughts – We expect new Southeast Asia AD/CVD tariffs to drive US module prices higher,” the analyst added. “We continue to expect a steady stream of positive policy drivers to support FSLR shares. At our recent ROTH Conference, management emphasized the need for the government to take quick and decisive action to curb the oversupply and module price implosion in the US, similar to management’s recent Senate Finance Committee testimony from March 12. Our recent checks suggest new Southeast Asia AD/CVD cases could be filed sometime likely after April 25. The timing is due to new regulations that apply to petitions filed after this date, and we suspect the petitioners may want preliminary decisions to come out during the “heat of the election season. The new regulations could support higher antidumping tariff calculations and may allow the DOC to go after “transnational subsidies,” such as China’s Belt
& Road Initiative. We expect the AD/CVDs to cover the four key Southeast Asian countries—Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. There is potential that India could be covered as well…new Southeast Asia tariffs could be coming. FSLR, in our view, would be the primary beneficiary of new SEA tariffs.”