PBLA stock is a buy, Roth says

Following some good news for the company, Roth MKM analyst Jonathan Aschoff has maintained his “Buy” rating on Panbela Therapeutics (Panbela Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials Nasdaq:PBLA).

On November 29, PBLA announced that the independent Data Safety Monitoring Board of the Phase 3 ASPIRE clinical trial for patients with untreated metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma has completed its pre-specified review of safety data for 214 treated patientsand had recommended that the study continue without modification.

“We are pleased that no safety concerns were identified and the DSMB’s recommendation is to proceed without modification to the ASPIRE Trial. With a focus on enrollment and completing site initiations, we are looking forward to the interim analysis in mid-2024.” said CEO Jennifer K. Simpson.

The analyst summed up where the company is now at.

“The most compelling argument for Phase 3 SBP-101 success comes from Phase 1a and 1b results from first-line metastatic PDA patients taking the current Phase 3 SBP-101 dose of 0.4mgkg in combination with gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel. In these 29 patients, the response rate was 48% (3% CR (1/29) and 45% PR (13/29)), with 34% SD (10/29) and 17% PD (5/29), for a disease control rate of 83% (24/29). We expect PBLA to publish these Phase 1 results in 2H23. Although cross trial comparisons are always suspect, we nonetheless note that 431 patients from the Phase 3 MPACT trial taking gemcitabine plus nab paclitaxel had a 23% response rate and 48% disease control rate. Median PFS and OS for SBP-101 plus background therapy was 6.5 and 14.6 months, respectively, versus the background therapy result of 5.5 and 8.5 months, respectively, from the MPACT trial. We note that six of the 29 optimally dosed Phase 1 SBP-101 patients are still alive beyond one year since starting therapy. Regarding notable safety items, although there were four grade 3 or 4 serious adverse visual events among all 50 Phase 1a and 1b patients taking any dose of SBP-101, patients with a history of retinopathy or at risk of retinal detachment are excluded from current and future SBP-101 trials.

In a research update to clients November 29, Aschoff maintained his “Buy” rating and 12-month target price of $25.00 on PBLA.

“Our 12-month price target of $25 is based on a DCF analysis using a 40% discount rate that is applied to all cash flows and the terminal value, which is based on a 4x multiple of our projected 2031 operating income of $666 million,” the analyst concluded. “Factors that could impede the achievement of our price target include, but are not limited to: (1) failure and/or setbacks of pipeline candidates in clinical trials; (2) failure of pipeline candidates to gain regulatory approval; and (3) smaller than projected commercial opportunity due to changes in market size, competitive landscape, and product pricing and reimbursement.”