Buy Array Technologies on pullbacks, says Roth

Roth Capital Partners analyst Philip Shen reviewed the latest quarterly results from solar company Array Technologies (Array Technologies Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:ARRY) in a new update on Wednesday, saying the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US should make Array shine brighter in the days ahead.

New Mexico-based Array Technologies, which has solar tracking solutions for utility-scale projects, announced on Tuesday its fourth quarter and full 2022 financials. The $2.8 billion market cap company posted revenue of $402.1 million compared to $219.9 million a year earlier and a net loss of $17.3 million versus $32.1 million a year ago. (All figures in US dollars.)

Array had announced preliminary fourth quarter figures earlier this month along with a 2023 outlook, and management now reaffirmed that guidance with the complete Q4 numbers, calling for 2023 revenue of $1,800-$1,950 million and adjusted net income per share of $0.75-$0.85. 

“As we enter 2023, we do so with an incredible amount of momentum: our $1.9 billion orderbook is priced to support long-term sustainability of our high teens to low twenties margin range. The significant amount of cashflow produced in the second half of 2022 solidifies our liquidity position and dramatically improves our leverage position,” said CEO Kevin Hostetler in a press release.

Shen noted that Array’s Q4 was a beat on revenue at $402 million versus Shen’s $314 forecast and the consensus at $367 million. Gross margin at 20 per cent was also above Shen’s forecast at 17.0 per cent and the Street at 18.8 per cent.

Shen said he expects utility-scale solar companies to perform well through and beyond the current banking crisis, with projects remaining on track for Array and upside potential from IRA, which promises $391 billion on energy and climate change.

Array’s bottom line also looks to be headed in the right direction, according to Shen, who called management’s 2023 guidance conservative.

“As it relates to the company’s $1.9 billion year-end 2022 backlog, it appears higher margin backlog (>20 per cent) skews much greater than lower margin backlog (high teens percentage). As a result, we see potential for margin estimate upside from these bookings on top of the potential IRA benefits ahead, which could be incrementally quite attractive. Look for bookings to accelerate as well following the Treasury IRA guidance. All in, we believe fundamentals are strong, and we would be buyers on any weakness,” Shen said.

With the update, Shen reiterated a “Buy” rating on Array Technologies and 12-month target of $35.00, which at the time of publication represented a projected return of 87 per cent.