Newly listed Tidewater Renewables (Tidewater Renewables Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:LCFS) has bounced around since its debut in August but you’re likely to see upside in the stock, according to Varun Anand of Starlight Capital, who thinks there’s a distinct possibility of LCFS doubling in the next couple of years.
A spinout this past summer from midstream natural gas infrastructure company Tidewater Midstream (Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:TWM), Calgary-based Tidewater Renewables completed in mid-August its IPO of ten million shares at $15.00 per share for proceeds of $150 million with the over-allotment fully exercised in September to add about an additional $11 million. The stock dropped to just under $14 as recently as last week but currently looks to be heading towards $15 per share.
Focusing on producing low-carbon fuels from renewable diesel, hydrogen and natural gas, Tidewater Renewables is expecting its Renewable Diesel and Renewable Hydrogen Complex to be ready for operation by the start of 2023, while a second facility, its Canola Co-Processing Project, is now up and running. Tidewater is projecting about $90-95 million in EBITDA in 2023 from the Diesel and Hydrogen plant and $5 million from the Canola plant in 2022.
Anand says Tidewater’s experienced management make the company less of a risk than other newly-formed companies and the stock has been trading too low as a result. In fact, he has nominated LCFS as one of his three Top Picks for the 12 months ahead.
“LCFS was spun out of Tidewater Midstream and they essentially took all their renewable and ESG assets and spun them into this vehicle to attract more investors including a number of Canadian pensions,” said Anand, vice president and senior portfolio manager at Starlight Capital, who spoke on BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday.
“When we look at this name, we think it’s one of the best ways to play out the renewable diesel and hydrogen thematic in Canada given that their flagship project which is going to be their renewable diesel facility at the Prince George refinery has received $100 million worth of low carbon fuel standard credits from the BC government,” he said.
“And just a couple of weeks ago, they announced they’ve actually sold about 45 per cent of those credits for $425 per credit, well above the $375 in their prospectus. So, we think there’s tremendous opportunity here,” Anand said.
Tidewater announced in November the sale of its BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits to an investment-grade company as part of a multi-year agreement. The 125,000 credits are coming from the construction of its Prince George Diesel and Hydrogen Complex.
“This multi-year agreement, which extends to January 2024, significantly reduces the value realization risk on a portion of the BC LCFS credits that Tidewater Renewables will receive, realizing total proceeds of over $53 million over the term of this agreement,” Tidewater said in a press release. “The Corporation continues to work on other potential multi-year agreements to monetize further credits that it will receive from the construction and operation of the Complex, from its Canola Co-Processing Facility, and from other projects.”
Tidewater released its latest quarterly report on November 4 where its third quarter ended September 30, 2021, featured revenue of $6.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $5.3 million.
The company listed a number of milestones achieved over the quarter including the IPO and reaching a positive final investment decision on the Diesel and Hydrogen Complex and the successful commissioning of its Canola Project.
“Tidewater Renewables continues to execute successfully on its strategy by expanding its integrated network of assets with disciplined capital allocation,” the company said in a press release.
Overall, Anand sees lots of potential in Tidewater Renewables the company as well as the stock.
“[Tidewater] is trading at less than 4x 2023 EBITDA, which I think is just discounting way too much execution risk, especially for a talented team like Tidewater. And this stock, trading in the $14’s, I think is worth well north of $20. And if they can execute on some of these other projects they’ve announced it could easily be a $25 or $30 stock over the next two years,” Anand said.
“So, it’s definitely one of our highest conviction names in the renewable diesel and hydrogen space in Canada,” he said.