Profound Medical has a 148 per cent upside, says Raymond James

Ahead of second quarter earnings being released next week, Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser believes Profound Medical (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Chart, News TSX:PRN) may return to form, maintaining his “Strong Buy 1” rating and target price of $36.00/share in his latest report on Tuesday.

With its headquarters in Mississauga, Ontario, and business in the US, Profound Medical is commercializing a novel noninvasive, image-guided therapeutic technology, the TULSA-PRO, which combines real-time magnetic resonance imaging with transurethral, robotically-driven therapeutic ultrasound and closed-loop thermal feedback control. The system is designed to provide precise ablation of pathologic prostate tissue (including prostate cancer and BPH) while simultaneously protecting critical surrounding anatomy.

Sarugaser said the potential of Profound’s bounce-back can be attributed to a number of factors like expanding on the 15 TULSA contracts the company claimed in the first quarter, with Sarugaser saying the company has secured an additional five contracts in the second quarter, which will keep them busy for at least a year as Sarugaser projects installation to occur at about five units per quarter.

Initial locations and installations for the technology include the Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston, Methodist Hospital in San Antonio, and the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., with installation expected to be complete by the end of the month. Meanwhile, the first of three RadNet sites with TULSA-PRO’s presence is now active, with management expecting the other two locations to be running within the next 12 months.

In addition, Sarugaser pointed out that Profound is initiating a Level One clinical trial (called ‘CAPTAIN’) pitting TULSA against radical prostatectomy (robotic surgery) and evaluating safety, efficacy and non-inferior progression-free survival.

“The study is not required to obtain the CPT-1 code, but may act to further support payer coverage and drive widespread adoption,” Sarugaser wrote.

On Profound’s application for reimbursement under a CPT-1 code, Sarugaser related that the company is expecting a ruling from the American Medical Association before 2022YE.

Sarugaser has adjusted his outlook as it pertains to the company’s financial ratios, lowering his target for the company’s EV/Revenue ratio to a multiple of 14.6x in 2021 from his original 18.6x estimate, with a further drop to 5.9x (from Sarugaser’s initial 7.5x forecast) in play for 2022.

He also has shifts happening in his EV/EBITDA ratio projections, with his 2021 projection moving to -11.0x from his initial -14.0x analysis, while 2022 is now forecast to hit -11.8x, a change from Sarugaser’s initial projection of -15.0x.

From a revenue standpoint, Sarugaser sees Profound being on the cusp of a steep upward curve, forecasting revenues to more than double in 2021, potentially reaching $15.7 million from the reported 2020 figure of $7.3 million. Another projected revenue double follows for 2022, with Sarugaser forecasting revenues of $37.1 million before an estimated jump to $82.7 million in 2023, the same year he projects a positive EBITDA ($3.9 million) for the first time. Sarugaser expects the positive momentum to continue through 2024 ($128.6 million in revenues, $30 million EBITDA) and 2025 ($179.7 million in revenues, $58.8 million EBITDA).

Profound’s share price is down about 20 per cent over the past five weeks, but Sarugaser anticipates Profound will have a solid second quarter, setting the stage for a strong second half of 2021 after a slow start.

“With the recent price decline, PROF now trades at 5.9x our 2022E EV/Rev. estimates, while its med-tech peers trade at 16.1x,” he said. “Using a 15x multiple on 2022 EV/Rev., we derive an implied valuation of $36.34/sh, and sanity-check this against a DCF analysis (8 per cent discount, 2 per cent terminal rates), implying a valuation of $37.62/sh. Balancing these, we maintain our target price at $36.00, and—for all the reasons outlined above—we maintain our Strong Buy (1) rating.”

Profound Medical closed on Wednesday on the NASDAQ exchange up 1.8 per cent to $14.95 per share. At the time of publication, Sarugaser’s $36.00 price target represented a projected 12-month return of 147.6 per cent.

In May, Profound Medical announced a partnership with Akumin Inc. (Akumin Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:AKU), a multi-site imaging centre agreement that will see TULSA-PRO imaging installed at up to ten Akumin sites in Florida with an emphasis on men’s health, with the potential for expansion into other states depending on the success of the initial agreement.

“We believe that Akumin will be a particularly strong partner for us given its strategy to become a leading full-service provider of men’s health and its geographic density in Florida, one of the largest markets for prostate care in the country,” said Arun Menawat, Profound’s CEO and Chairman in the company’s May 6 press release. “With respect to timing, we currently expect the first Akumin TULSA-PRO site to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2021.”

Outside of the Akumin partnership, Profound’s corporate activities in the second quarter have been largely focused on the conference circuit, having participated in fireside investor chats at the Jefferies Virtual Healthcare Conference and the Virtual Raymond James Human Health Innovations Conference in June, with management also committing to participating in A.G.P.’s Virtual MedTech Summer Conference on Thursday.