Enthusiast Gaming (Enthusiast Gaming Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:EGLX) has been on an amazing run this past five months, but it isn’t over yet, says Paradigm Capital analyst Corey Hammill, who just upped his target price in a report to clients on Tuesday.
Enthusiast Gaming is a gaming company with a media and events business, an eSports organization and a YouTube platform with over 300 million views per month and 4.2 billion page views across the company’s thousands of gaming-related channels and websites.
Toronto-headquartered Enthusiast announced its fourth quarter and year end 2020 financials on Monday, coming in with Q4 revenue up 34 per cent sequentially 50 $42.5 million and a net and comprehensive loss of $6.9 million compared to a pro forma net and comprehensive loss of $8.0 million for the third quarter.
In his comments, CEO Adrian Montgomery called 2020 a challenging year both financially and operationally but one featuring a number of significant steps made by the company, foremost in what Montgomery called the transformative purchase of Omnia Media in August, along with the build-out of Enthusiast’s sales team, a 60-per-cent growth in the company’s subscriber base, syndicating content to a range of platforms and additions to its Luminosity esports roster.
Looking ahead, Montgomery said EGLX’s filing for a NASDAQ listing is in its final stages.
“For 2021, we will continue to invest to accelerate growth and expect revenue growth of at least 20 per cent, as we move more aggressively into Phase 2 of our strategic plan to grow and monetize our premium media, talent, esports and entertainment assets,” Montgomery wrote.
For his part, Hammill said the $42.5-million Q4 revenue was a beat of his estimate at $39 million and the consensus $37.4 million, while a fourth quarter EBITDA loss of $0.6 million was a hair larger than the consensus loss of $0.3 million. For the year, Enthusiast’s revenue of $72.9 million was better than Hammill’s $71-million estimate but an EBITDA loss of $11 million was wider than Hammill’s negative $4.7 million estimate.
Hammill said he has adjusted his forecasts, pulling down his EBITDA estimates to account for what he called the more aggressive hiring of a direct sales team, which once completed should be followed up by margin expansion.
The analyst is now calling for EGLX to generate 2021 revenue of $196.9 million (was $190.0 million) and EBITDA of negative $2.9 million (was positive ($0.8 million). For 2020, he is calling for $234.5 million in revenue (was $224.4 million) and $11.7 million in EBITDA (was $15.7 million).
EGLX was a market favourite over the past few months, where the stock went from about $1.50 per share as of early November to now close to $10.00. But Hammill sees more upside. With his update, Hammill reiterated his “Buy” rating and raised his target from $11.00 to $12.50, which at the time of publication represented a projected 12-month return of 29 per cent.
“The acquisition of Omnia Media added a large network of influencers and content creation channels to EGLX’s vast gaming media platform, which will lead to more ad and subscription sales. We see a clear path for margin expansion within Omnia under the EGLX banner. EGLX’s continued focus on creating the largest gaming platform will position the company as a go-to platform for brands and advertisers looking to monetize on the difficult-to-reach gaming community,” Hammill said.
Hammill said his new target is based on a 6.5x EV/Sales multiple on his 2022 estimates (previously 2021), which he said is supported by his broad eSports tracking basket which currently trades at about 6.0x.
“We firmly believe that investors should focus on EGLX’s media and content segment, which monetizes its user platform and generates revenue essentially on a per-user basis. For this segment, we have looked more closely at internet companies which generate revenue through advertising; this group trades at 7.5x revenue. EGLX is at the forefront of growth, ready to drive compelling margin expansion from its large viewer base,” Hammill wrote.
Hammill said Enthusiast is executing to its five-phase growth strategy, mentioned above by Montgomery. The company’s Phase 1 focused on building scale in terms of audience and experience, which Hammill said has been accomplished via the company’s now-300-million monthly gamers, plus-1,000 YouTube channels, ownership of 30 unique gaming content shows, acquisition of Luminosity Gaming and ownership in two major franchise leagues owned by Activision.
Phase 2 and 3 for EGLX involve accelerating revenue per view, specifically through direct sales, with Hammill noting management’s call for three-year growth in average revenue per user from about $0.50 (including Omnia) to about $3.00 by 2023.
“Our forecast is more conservative, staying at around $1.00 through 2023, leaving meaningful room for upside,” said Hammill. “Based on our estimates, EGLX’s two-year APRU CAGR is 72 per cent; our internet tracking basket average is 11 per cent.”
“In the near term, EGLX will grow the APRU of its 300 million monthly users through optimizing advertising impressions and direct sales. The direct sales team currently has three staff; as the team grows, we should see direct sales grow to ~five per cent of advertising revenue in the next 12 months and ~25 per cent long term,” he said.