The Canadian online gaming sector is undervalued, says Cantor Fitzgerald

The reporting season for most of Canada’s online gaming sector is approaching, and Cantor Fitzgerald Canada analyst Ralph Garcea expects some solid results.

On Thursday, Intertain Group (TSX:IT) and Innova Gaming (TSX:IGG) will report their second quarter results, followed by Amaya (TSX:AYA) on Friday. The analyst notes that NYX Gaming (TSXV:NYX) and Tangelo Games Corp. (TSXV:GEL) have yet to confirm dates, but he expects NYX will report the week of August 22 and Tangelo the following week.

Garcea says despite some strong performances over the past few years, Canada’s online gaming sector currently looks cheap when compared to their peers internationally.

“The Canadian gaming names have continued to materially lag their global counterparts, trading at a 35% discount on our one-year price weighted index (to C$100) (albeit up from a 55% discount earlier in the year),” says Garcea.

Garcea says Intertain Group (TSX:IT), which plans to list on the London Stock Exchange, is focused on fundamentals, which he says are “very robust”, something he expects to be confirmed with its second quarter results.

“Intertain now has a world class management and Board in place to redefine the corporate structure and continue delivering sound fundamentals, thus maximizing long-term shareholder value,” says Garcea.
The analyst expects Intertain will post Adjusted EBITDA of $43.83-million on revenue of $116.58-million in the second quarter.

Innova Gaming Group (TSX:IGG), notes Garcea, recently deployed its LT-3 terminals into New Hampshire, its sixth North American market. He says this is good news for shareholders, as LT-3 units are “very profitable”.

Garcea thinks the company, which he expects will post Adjusted EBITDA of $1.4-million on revenue of $5.58-million in the second quarter, is undervalued.

“We note that as at Q1/16, IGG carried a book value of US$1.29/sh and according to our estimates will grow to US$1.32/sh in Q2/16. IGG is currently trading at $1.13/sh.,” says the analyst.

Garcea expects troubles that plagued Amaya’s (TSX:AYA) first quarter will begin to taper off in the second.

“We believe the margin momentum from Q1/16 is sustainable into 2016 as FX headwinds taper off and sportsbook gains traction,” he says. “PokerStars has ~102M registered users and ~71% market share. The user base should continue to grow leveraging the successful marketing program with Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar Jr. – with 150M+ and 120M+ social media followers, respectively, and both having very remarkable seasons this year. In addition, the revamping of the poker VIP system to focus more on the engagement of recreational players is working – as net deposits have increased y/y and new players’ deposits are lasting longer. This in turn is fuelling the growing casino business, and should support the emerging sportsbook.”

Garcea thinks Amaya will post Adjusted EBITDA of $119-million on revenue of $283.4-million in the second quarter.

NYX Gaming (TSXV:NYX), notes Garcea, is currently absorbing the $505-million acquisition of sportsbook and digital gaming supplier OpenBet. He believes the acquisition instantly makes NYX “…the world’s leading supplier of digital gaming content and technology”, but thinks the full leverage of the deal won’t be realized until the third quarter. In the second quarter, the analyst expects NYX will post Adjusted EBITDA of $10.31-million on revenue of $29.04-million.

Tangelo Games (TSXV:GEL), points out Garcea, is currently undergoing a shift from Flash to HTML5, a decision he says has a short term inpact on performance but will benefit the company in the long term.

The analyst expects Tangelo will post Operating EBITDA of $3.6-million on revenue of $11.0-million in the second quarter.

Garcea says consolidation in the global gaming sector defines the space right now, providing a potential catalyst to all online gaming companies.