Should you sell your Firefly Aerospace stock?

Roth Capital Partners analyst Suji Desilva says Firefly Aerospace’s (Firefly Aerospace Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FLY) Q2 results showed strong revenue growth and backlog visibility, though broader market valuation changes have lowered his target.

In an Aug. 12 update, Desilva maintained his “Buy” rating on Firefly and lowered his target to US$45.00 from $60.00

“We expect the company’s launch business to benefit from a strong demand environment as it ramps its Alpha and Eclipse vehicles,” Desilva said. “We expect Firefly to benefit from a broadening footprint of program ramps across space mission, national security, and AI software.”

Firefly reported Q2 revenue of US$117.7-million, up 45.5% sequentially and 659% year-over-year, ahead of consensus at US$88.2-million.

Desilva said the beat was driven by strong growth in the spacecraft segment, where revenue rose 60% sequentially on contributions from multiple programs. Launch revenue fell 29% sequentially, reflecting milestone timing and no launches in the quarter after the successful Alpha FLTA0007 launch in Q1.

Gross margin was 20%, which Desilva said remained healthy despite some mix pressure. EPS of negative 42 cents was 11 cents ahead of consensus, while Adjusted EBITDA was negative US$61.2-million.

Firefly ended the quarter with about US$635-million of cash after a recent offering, plus more than US$300-million available under an undrawn revolver.

“We believe Firefly has ample available liquidity to execute the company’s operating plan even while absorbing recent acquisitions,” Desilva said.

Firefly reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance of US$420-million to US$450-million, representing growth of 160% to 180%. The company’s backlog remains about US$1.5-billion, which Desilva said provides roughly 95% coverage of 2026 guidance.

“We believe Firefly has significant revenue ramp coverage with five secured lunar missions progressing in parallel and strong national security traction with the SciTec AI software acquisition,” he said.

-30-