This analyst loves Firefly Aerospace

Roth Capital analyst Suji Desilva has raised his price target on Firefly Aerospace (Firefly Aerospace Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FLY) to $35.00 from $30.00, maintaining a “Buy” rating, as the company continues to demonstrate strong revenue growth and improving visibility into 2026.

In a March 20 report, Desilva said Firefly’s fourth-quarter results and forward guidance support a constructive outlook despite some near-term launch timing delays.

“We believe FLY has significant backlog coverage into near-term growth with upside from incremental program opportunities in the coming quarters,” he said.

Firefly, a Texas-based space and defence company focused on launch vehicles and spacecraft, reported Q4 2025 revenue of $57.7-million, up 311% year-over-year and 87% sequentially, driven primarily by strength in its spacecraft segment. Spacecraft revenue rose 133% quarter-over-quarter, offsetting an 18% decline in launch revenue due to the pushout of a key Alpha mission into early 2026 following a late-2025 test stand anomaly.

Gross margin held steady at 28% as the company continues to scale its spacecraft programs, while Adjusted EBITDA was negative $57.3-million, reflecting ongoing investment. Firefly ended the quarter with approximately $900-million in cash, which Desilva said provides sufficient funding to execute its growth strategy, including the acquisition of SciTech.

Looking ahead, Firefly guided to 2026 revenue of $420-million to $450-million, broadly in line with expectations and representing significant year-over-year growth. The outlook is supported by contributions from SciTech, increased launch cadence and expanding spacecraft programs, with approximately 80% of forecast revenue already covered by backlog.

The company’s backlog grew to $1.4-billion from $1.3-billion previously, reflecting continued program wins across both launch and spacecraft segments.

“We are encouraged that Alpha has now returned to flight with the successful launch of FLTA0007, and that the company is preparing to transition to its newer Block II architecture,” Desilva said.

Firefly expects to complete four Alpha launches in 2026 while advancing development of its larger Eclipse rocket and preparing for a second Blue Ghost lunar mission.

Desilva added that the company is well-positioned for potential national security-related contract awards, citing programs such as Golden Dome and FORGE, alongside its Elytra and Blue Ghost spacecraft platforms and newly acquired SciTech assets.

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