Docebo wins huge price target raise at ATB

ATB Capital Markets analyst Gavin Fairweather said after attending Docebo’s (Docebo Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:DCBO) investor event in Miami that the company’s product momentum, AI roadmap and improving competitive position support a higher valuation, raising his price target to C$36.00 from C$25.00 and maintaining an “Outperform” rating.

“We walked away from the event impressed by the product direction and pace of R&D and sensed genuine excitement from customers,” Fairweather said.

Fairweather said customer, partner and prospect feedback pointed to strong reception for Docebo’s core learning-management platform, with attendees highlighting configurability, faster product development and a broader vision built around learning, skills, enterprise knowledge and AI-driven automation. He said the company appears to be gaining ground against competitors such as Cornerstone and Absorb, while new chief revenue officer Mark Kosoglow’s go-to-market discipline is helping shorten sales cycles and improve pipeline conversion.

The analyst also said Docebo is accelerating product development with AI embedded across the product team, driving a 50% increase in productivity with the same resources. Customers at the event pointed to a faster release cadence over the past two years, while new offerings such as AI Tutoring, Harmony Search, Companion and AgentHub broaden the platform’s automation and knowledge-management capabilities. Fairweather said those additions should support upsell opportunities and make the platform more deeply embedded with customers.

Docebo’s acquisition of 365Talents strengthens its position in skills intelligence and enterprise use cases, with early customer interest suggesting potential cross-sell opportunities across both internal and external skills mapping. Fairweather said the company’s growth vectors now include greater AI upsell, skills cross-sell, government, and continued enterprise traction.

Alongside the event, Docebo pre-released first-quarter results that came in ahead of expectations and raised 2026 guidance. Revenue is expected at $65.4-million to $65.6-million, up 14.3% year-over-year, while ARR is expected to reach $249.0-million, up 11%. Excluding Dayforce OEM churn, acquisitions and foreign exchange, Fairweather said organic core ARR growth accelerated to 13.7% from 12.5% in the fourth quarter.

For full-year 2026, Docebo now expects revenue of $271-million to $273-million, up from prior guidance of $267.5-million to $269.5-million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $54.5-million to $56.5-million, up from $52.5-million to $54.5-million. Fairweather said management’s confidence reflects continued mid-market strength, a better-than-expected government pipeline, improving enterprise momentum and product expansions, with two new contracts above $1-million ARR already signed in the first quarter.

Fairweather said Docebo’s revised target model also reflects structural margin benefits from AI, including lower expected spending ratios for R&D and sales and marketing. He noted the company’s total addressable market has expanded to $40-billion from $25-billion as it evolves into what management calls a unified learning and knowledge platform.

With momentum building and the stock still trading at 9.5x 2026 EBITDA, Fairweather said the risk-reward remains skewed to the upside. He continues to value the shares at 2.5x 2026 sales, which supports his new C$36.00 target.

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