Black Swan Graphene is a buy, this analyst says

Paradigm Capital analyst Marvin Wolff said in an April 20 note that Black Swan Graphene (Black Swan Graphene Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:SWAN) remains an early-stage but post-development graphene producer scaling toward commercial volume, maintaining a “Buy” rating and $2.50 12-month price target.

Wolff said Black Swan gives investors exposure to a graphene producer targeting industrial markets, with its patented process now scaling to 140 tonnes per annum and an eventual goal of 10,000 tpa as it builds out its customer base.

The note followed Black Swan’s announcement that it had completed a capacity expansion at its Consett, U.K., facility and acquired Falpaco Rubber and Plastics of Granby, Que.

Wolff said a new 100-tpa production circuit has been installed and commissioned at Consett, lifting annual graphene capacity from 40 tpa to 140 tpa to meet existing and expected supply mandates. He estimated the installed cost of a 100-tpa graphene unit at about $900,000.

The analyst said the Falpaco deal adds injection-moulding capacity and strengthens Black Swan’s polymer sales channel. Falpaco produces plastic parts using TPU, nylon, polypropylene and polyethylene, areas where Wolff said Black Swan has specifically tailored its graphene formulations.

Falpaco will operate as a wholly owned subsidiary and incorporate Black Swan’s graphene into its offerings. Wolff said the business currently generates about $7.4-million in revenue and roughly $1.5-million in EBITDA. The $12.6-million purchase price includes $4.1-million in cash, $6.7-million in debt and $1.8-million in Black Swan shares.

Black Swan also retains distribution partnerships with Hubron International, Broadway Colours and Modern Dispersions, which will supply its graphene-enhanced masterbatch material to polymer customers.

The company is also advancing packaging applications. Wolff said Black Swan has had success in graphene-enhanced polylactic acid for consumer packaging, including aerosols through Farrag Packaging, with barrier improvements approaching 50%. He also said one sustainable-packaging customer is seeking improved food-contact plastic packaging, with Black Swan now pursuing FDA approval alongside a partner, which he expects in the first half of 2026.

Using a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple, up from 8x, on 2030 estimated EBITDA of $27.6-million, down from $57.3-million previously, and discounting that by 10% annually versus 25% before, Wolff arrived at a $2.42 valuation, rounded to a $2.50 target, implying a market capitalization of about $110-million.

Wolff expects Black Swan to post Adjusted EBITDA of negative $4.6-million on revenue of $7.9-million in fiscal 2026, improving to negative $2.7-million on revenue of $13.3-million in fiscal 2027.

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