This Canadian dividend stock is a buy, analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained his “Buy” rating and $7.00 target for Decisive Dividend Corporation (Decisive Dividend Corporation Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:DE) ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, expected after market close on March 11.

Stanley said he expects the Kelowna, B.C.-based company to report revenue of about $40-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $7.2-million, roughly in line with consensus forecasts of $40-million and $7.1-million, respectively.

Beyond the headline numbers, Stanley said investors will be focused on free cash flow less maintenance capital expenditures, a key metric used to assess the sustainability of Decisive Dividend’s payout.

“We expect DE to report $4.3-million, or $0.21 per share, representing a quarterly dividend payout ratio of 63% and a trailing-twelve-month ratio of 79%,” he said in his March 10 report.

That trailing payout ratio would sit slightly above management’s self-imposed ceiling of 75%, but would still mark a significant year-over-year improvement from a peak of 96% in the fourth quarter of 2024, Stanley noted.

Stanley added that management commentary will also be closely watched for updates on performance across the company’s five core segments: Industrial, Hearth, Wear-parts, Merchandising and Agriculture, as well as potential merger-and-acquisition activity.

Decisive Dividend, headquartered in Kelowna, acquires and builds profitable, well-established businesses with sustainable competitive advantages. As of early November, the company had $35-million available under its $100-million revolving credit facility, with an additional $75-million accordion feature still unused.

Stanley also pointed to the company’s dividend yield as a potential valuation catalyst. Decisive currently yields about 7.1%, compared with 2.7% for Exchange Income Corporation.

He noted that if Decisive’s yield were to compress to match Exchange Income’s level, the stock would need to rise nearly 160% to about $20 per share, while a move back to its own 5.0% yield low from March 2024 would imply the shares climbing roughly 42% to about $11.

Stanley forecasts Decisive Dividend will generate $25-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $149-million in fiscal 2025, improving to $33-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $165-million in fiscal 2026.

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