This analyst just chopped his price target on Cargojet

Beacon Securities analyst Donangelo Volpe lowered his price target on Cargojet (Cargojet Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CJT) following the company’s fourth-quarter results, trimming his valuation multiple to 9.0x FY26 Adjusted EBITDA from 9.5x.

The analyst chopped his price target from $135.00 to $120.00, while maintaining his “Buy” rating.

“While the results were ahead of expectations, commentary regarding limited visibility due to persistent global trade uncertainty combined with focus on margin preservation led us to revisit our growth assumptions for FY26,” Volpe said in a Feb. 25 note.

Cargojet reported Q4 consolidated revenue of $285.0-million, up 29% sequentially and down 3% year-over-year, ahead of both Volpe’s and consensus estimates of $251.0-million. Core domestic, charter and ACMI revenue totalled $243.0-million.

Domestic network revenue was $120.0-million, up 17% year-over-year, driven by e-commerce and B2B volumes. Charter revenue declined 10% to $58.0-million due to reduced China-Canada frequency, partially offset by incremental demand from grounded third-party aircraft. ACMI revenue fell 23% year-over-year to $65.0-million as aircraft were redeployed from Asia and Europe to South America.

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $95.0-million, up 4% year-over-year and ahead of Volpe’s $79.0-million estimate and $80.0-million consensus. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved 210 basis points to 33%, with management targeting margins above 30% through 2026.

On the call, management struck a “cautiously optimistic” tone, citing ongoing geopolitical and tariff-related volatility weighing on transpacific and transatlantic markets. The suspension of the HK Express contract reflects continued weakness in China-U.S. e-commerce volumes, though management expects improvement in the second half of 2026 if macro conditions stabilize.

For fiscal 2026, Cargojet expects gross capex of $190.0-million to $210.0-million, largely maintenance-related, with leverage targeted below 2.5x over time. Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA currently stands at approximately 2.8x pro forma for aircraft sales.

Volpe now expects Cargojet to generate $315.1-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $996.8-million in fiscal 2026.

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