Kinaxis named a “Top Pick” for 2026 by this analyst

National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse says accelerating fundamentals continue to support his positive view on Kinaxis (Kinaxis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KXS), reiterating the stock as one of his “Top Picks” for 2026 following strong fourth-quarter results.

In a March 5 bulletin, Tse reiterated his “Outperform” rating and $240.00 target

Tse said Kinaxis delivered solid Q4 performance, reporting revenue of $144.2-million, above both his $140.5-million estimate and the $139.9-million consensus forecast. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $37.6-million, slightly below his $38.3-million estimate but ahead of the $35.9-million Street consensus.

Annual recurring revenue reached $433-million, rising 18% year-over-year on a constant-currency basis and accelerating from 17% growth in the previous quarter. SaaS revenue increased 16% year-over-year in constant currency, also improving from the 15% growth recorded in Q3.

Tse said the results mark an encouraging start under newly appointed CEO Razat Gaurav, who joined the company in January and addressed investor concerns about artificial intelligence competition during the earnings call.

“We think Kinaxis made a convincing case for why it won’t easily be disrupted due to its proprietary models, workflows and data,” Tse wrote, adding that the company is pursuing incremental revenue opportunities through partnerships with emerging AI leaders such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

Kinaxis provides cloud-based software-as-a-service supply chain management tools and has been expanding its enterprise footprint. Tse said the company was already executing well under interim leadership before Gaurav’s arrival but expects further strategic progress under the new CEO.

“All in, we think the company was executing well… even before its new CEO Razat Gaurav started in January,” Tse said, adding that early discussions with the new chief executive suggest “another incremental step-up” in strategy that could drive additional growth and a higher valuation.

Tse summarized the quarter’s theme in one word: “Acceleration.”

He said scaling operational initiatives appear to be translating into growth as long enterprise sales cycles begin to convert. Large enterprise wins roughly doubled year-over-year in 2025, while expansion orders accounted for 55% of new business, with new applications representing more than half of expansion activity.

Tse forecasts Kinaxis will generate $161.0-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $628.3-million in fiscal 2026. He expects those figures to increase to $183.7-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $713.2-million in fiscal 2027.

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