Galaxy Digital. Buy, Sell or Hold?

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained an “Outperform” rating on Galaxy Digital Holdings (Galaxy Digital Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:GLXY) but lowered his target to $47.00 from $50.00 following first-quarter 2026 results, citing near-term crypto weakness but strengthening fundamentals tied to AI infrastructure.

Galaxy reported a net loss of $216-million in the quarter, driven by a 20% decline in digital asset prices, but Toner said the underlying operational story remains strong.

“The firm reached a major de-risking milestone by delivering its first data hall to CoreWeave,” Toner said, marking the start of high-margin, contracted cash flows that are uncorrelated to crypto markets.

Toner said the launch of the Helios data centre positions Galaxy to generate more than $1-billion in average annual revenue at roughly 90% EBITDA margins under long-term contracts, providing a hedge against digital asset volatility.

The analyst noted Galaxy now has 1.6GW of approved capacity, with another 1.8GW in development, creating what he described as a “one-of-one” infrastructure asset attracting hyperscaler and AI demand.

“Hyperscalers are scrambling to secure power for 2026 and 2027, but GLXY expects they will soon turn attention to 2028,” Toner said, pointing to a growing pipeline of leasing opportunities.

Toner said the company is evolving into a critical infrastructure provider for AI workloads, supported by a 15-year master lease agreement with CoreWeave covering 526MW of capacity.

Despite near-term volatility, he said Galaxy’s business is becoming less cyclical, with improving contributions from asset management, trading and infrastructure. He also highlighted BlackRock naming Galaxy as an approved validator for its Ethereum ETF as a sign of growing institutional adoption.

Toner lowered his 2026 estimates but raised his 2027 outlook to reflect the shifting revenue mix. He now expects Galaxy to generate $441-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $44.6-billion in revenue in fiscal 2026, improving to $1.22-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on $61.1-billion in revenue in fiscal 2027.

He said the stock is still undervalued relative to its long-term infrastructure opportunity, with high-performance computing assets alone representing about $28.00 per share in value.

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