Buy this pot stock for a double, analyst says

Neal Gilmer of Haywood Securities reiterated a “Buy” rating and $1.00 price target on Ascend Wellness Holdings (Ascend Wellness Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:AAWH.U) after the company reported fourth-quarter results that matched its earlier pre-announcement.

Ascend Wellness is a U.S. cannabis company that grows and sells both medical and recreational products. It focuses on large, limited-license states where it can control the whole supply chain. The company is a market leader in Illinois and is expanding in New Jersey, Ohio, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maryland.

In a March 13 report, Gilmer said Ascend’s Q4 2025 net revenue of $120.5-million was in line with the preliminary figure and close to Haywood’s $122.2-million estimate. Revenue declined 11.4% year-over-year and 3.4% sequentially.

Adjusted gross margin was 45.4%, broadly matching the analyst’s 45.5% forecast and down 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter due to seasonal discounting. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $30.2-million, representing a 25.1% margin, slightly above Gilmer’s $28.1-million estimate and consistent with the earlier guidance.

Ascend generated $16.3-million in operating cash flow during the quarter and ended the period with $85.7-million in cash and net debt of $215.8-million.

Retail revenue reached $85.0-million, rising 1.4% sequentially but declining 6.0% year-over-year, while wholesale revenue totalled $35.5-million, down 22.1% year-over-year and 13.1% quarter-over-quarter.

Gilmer noted the company recently relaunched its flagship Ozone cannabis brand across all seven of its operating markets with updated branding, packaging and product standards aimed at reinforcing a premium positioning.

Management expects first-quarter revenue to decline by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage, reflecting post-holiday softness, ongoing pricing pressure and weather-related store closures. EBITDA margins are expected to land in the low-20% range in Q1, consistent with typical seasonal trends.

“We believe Ascend is favourably positioned in attractive markets to support long-term growth, including the Ohio adult-use market as well as new dispensary openings in their key states,” Gilmer said.

Haywood now forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue of $493.0-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $116.3-million, increasing to $517.4-million in revenue and $131.8-million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027.

Disclosure: Nick Waddell owns shares of Ascend.

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