This Canadian microcap stock will beat the market, analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley reiterated his “Buy” rating and $0.65 price target on Cematrix Corporation (Cematrix Corporation Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CEMX) following the announcement of $5.2-million in new contract awards.

Cematrix, a Calgary-based manufacturer of cellular concrete for infrastructure, industrial and commercial construction projects across Canada and the U.S., said most of the newly awarded work is scheduled for completion in fiscal 2027, with a portion to be recognized this year.

“The wins include a grouting application on a tunnel project and a load-reducing fill application for a retaining wall project. The remainder are small to mid-sized projects for lightweight fill applications in both Canada and the United States,” Stanley said.

Management added that bidding activity remains strong and the sales pipeline robust.

Following more than $50-million in awards during fiscal 2025, Cematrix has secured over $12-million in new orders in less than two months of fiscal 2026, including $7.1-million announced in January. Including $6.9-million in mid-December awards, the company has signed nearly $20-million in orders over the past 11 weeks.

Cematrix exited Q3 with a $75-million backlog after generating $15.3-million in revenue during the seasonally strong quarter. The backlog represents approximately 1.7x Stanley’s fiscal 2025 revenue estimate.

Stanley expects Q4 results around March 11 and forecasts revenue of $12.0-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.9-million, implying a 15% margin. He also models $0.01 per share in diluted EPS and operating cash flow of $1.6-million before working capital.

Stanley estimates Cematrix will generate $8-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $45-million in fiscal 2025, improving to $10-million in EBITDA on revenue of $60-million in fiscal 2026.

The stock is currently testing 52-week highs and trades at 5.7x his fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, representing a discount to both infrastructure/engineering and cement peers. Stanley cited upcoming Q4 results, additional contract wins and potential M&A as catalysts.

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