Should you sell your Airship AI stock?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Scott Searle maintained his “Buy” rating on Airship AI Holdings (Airship AI Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:AISP) but lowered his price target to US $8.00 (from $11.00) in a Dec. 8 company update, saying federal procurement delays are masking one of the strongest demand backdrops the safety-and-security technology market has seen “in years.”

Searle said a prolonged approvals slowdown across key federal agencies, compounded by the record 45-day government shutdown, drove two weak quarters (Q2/Q3 sales of US$2.1-million and US$1.2-million). But he argued these headwinds are cyclical rather than structural.

“Now, post a backlogged approval process … orders and RFPs have begun to return,” he said, pointing to a record US$166-million validated pipeline and an US$11-million backlog largely deliverable over Q4/25 and Q1/26.

Redmond, Wash.–based Airship AI provides AI-driven edge video, sensor, and data-management systems to U.S. federal agencies and enterprise customers.

Searle said the U.S. government’s expanding security budgets, including more than US$70-billion in supplemental funding for Homeland Security over four years, with US$6.2-billion earmarked for border-security technology such as AI and machine learning, create a “multi-year tailwind.” As an approved vendor, Airship is “well positioned” as DHS, CBP and DoJ move delayed procurements through the RFP and award process.

Alongside federal demand, the analyst said commercial uptake is broadening, with companies such as FedEx and Home Depot already using Airship’s AI-edge systems for warehouse safety and theft reduction. He also sees a “nascent but emerging” opportunity for Airship’s multimodal edge-processing platform within commercial robotics beginning in 2027.

Despite near-term revenue pressure, Searle expects a sharp acceleration once procurement cycles normalize. He now forecasts sales to rise more than 100% in 2026 and over 40% in 2027, supported by a favourable mix of Outpost AI edge hardware and the higher-margin Acropolis software platform.

Searle trimmed his estimates to reflect 2025–26 government disruption and introduced 2027 forecasts. He now expects Airship to post a 2025 Adjusted EBITDA loss of US$5.7-million on US$15.3-million in revenue (previously US$0.8-million EBITDA on US$30.4-million). For 2026, he models US$2.0-million EBITDA on US$36.0-million in revenue (previously US$8.3-million on US$48.5-million).

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