Trulieve Cannabis just got a massive price target raise from this analyst

In a Nov. 6 report, Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley raised his target price on Trulieve Cannabis (Trulieve Cannabis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:TRUL) to C$20.00 from C$11.00, citing stronger operating performance, improved balance sheet flexibility, and a re-rating of valuation multiples.

Stanley said the new target reflects a higher 9x multiple applied to his fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA estimate, up from 6x previously, amid improving investor sentiment and Trulieve’s “renewed growth outlook heading into 2026.”

The company recently reported third-quarter results that beat consensus and reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 operating cash flow guidance of at least US$250-million, while also initiating the redemption of its US$368-million senior secured notes due October 2026.

For the third quarter, Trulieve posted revenue of US$288-million and Adjusted EBITDA of US$103-million (36% margin), ahead of Beacon’s forecast at US$88-million (31%) and the Street at US$96-million (33%).

Stanley said the results marked “a clear beat on margins and cost discipline,” noting that operating expenses were down US$9-million year-over-year and that gross margins came in nearly one percentage point above forecast. Revenue declined 5% sequentially, in line with seasonal guidance, while modest year-over-year growth reflected contributions from new store openings, expansion in Ohio’s adult-use market, and higher wholesale sales.

Trulieve generated US$77-million in operating cash flow in the quarter, aided by working capital changes, and exited with US$449-million in cash and equivalents. Stanley said the company’s decision to redeem its senior secured notes “underscores its balance-sheet strength and operational flexibility,” adding that management may issue up to US$150-million in new debt depending on market conditions but “has no immediate need to do so.”

Trulieve continues to play a leading role in Florida’s Smart & Safe adult-use cannabis initiative, which had validated more than 675,000 signatures as of Nov. 1 toward the 880,000 required by February 2026. Stanley said the campaign remains on track for inclusion on the November 2026 ballot, with a stronger legal framework and a more favourable political environment than in 2024.

Stanley estimates Trulieve will generate US$1.19-billion in revenue and US$427-million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2025, followed by US$1.20-billion and US$415-million in 2026. He noted that Trulieve trades at 5.7x his 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, about a 13% discount to the 6.6x average of its largest U.S. multi-state peers.

“Potential catalysts include completion of the note redemption, new M&A activity, continued progress on Florida adult-use legalization, and fourth-quarter results,” Stanley said.

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