Is Curaleaf still a buy?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Bill Kirk maintained his “Buy” rating and US $4.00 price target on Curaleaf Holdings (Curaleaf Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials OTCBB:CURLF) in a Nov. 6 report, after the company delivered a slight beat on sales and Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter while expanding its international operations.

Kirk said Curaleaf’s international segment is now operating at an annualized run rate of about US$184-million, driven by assets in Canada and Portugal that hold EU-GMP certification. He said those operations, combined with established European partnerships, “ideally position Curaleaf to capitalize on new market developments and opportunities related to heightened standards enforcement.”

Curaleaf reported third-quarter revenue of US$320.2-million, up 1.8% sequentially and down 3.1% year-over-year, modestly above consensus at US$316.9-million. Retail revenue was US$226-million, down 11% year-over-year, while wholesale revenue rose 19% to US$91-million, supported by strength in Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio, along with new product introductions under the Select brand, now the top-selling vape line in the U.S., according to BDSA. International sales rose 12.4% sequentially to US$45.9-million, up roughly 55% from a year earlier.

Curaleaf posted Adjusted EBITDA of US $69.3-million, a 21.6% margin, compared with consensus at US$66.2-million. Adjusted gross margins were 50%, up 115 basis points year-over-year, while SG&A increased modestly due to store openings in Florida and New York.

Kirk said the company’s growth strategy is balancing optimization and expansion.

“With domestic market pressures and company-specific repositioning in 2025, Curaleaf is returning to a growth focus for 2026,” he said, adding that “broadening in existing states, international unlocks, and ongoing hemp investments” should support the next stage of expansion.

For fiscal 2025, Kirk forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of US$265.2-million on revenue of US$1.27-billion, rising to US$280.2-million on US$1.34-billion in 2026, with margins expected to remain near 21%.

Kirk said international markets “have been a strong offset to U.S. softness” and could become a key driver of growth, noting Curaleaf’s potential leadership position in Germany and its entry into Turkey’s developing medical cannabis market. “It appears Curaleaf has one of sixteen licenses in the country and may be the only foreign, experienced player,” he said.

-30-