This American cannabis stock is one of the best, analyst says

In a Nov. 6 report, Haywood Capital Markets analyst Neal Gilmer maintained a “Buy” rating and $19.00 target price on Green Thumb Industries (Green Thumb Industries Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:GTII), following third-quarter results that were broadly in line with expectations and highlighted the company’s continued ability to generate strong cash flow.

Gilmer said Green Thumb’s diversified product portfolio and disciplined cost management continue to support stable performance across core markets.

“GTI remains one of the best-positioned operators in the U.S. cannabis sector, with consistent execution and a strong balance sheet providing flexibility for growth,” he said.

The Chicago-based multi-state operator reported third-quarter revenue of US$291.4-million, up 1.6% year-over-year and down 0.6% sequentially, consistent with both Haywood’s US$294.1-million estimate and consensus at US$290.9-million. Adjusted EBITDA was US$80.2-million (27.5% margin), compared with forecasts of US$81.1-million and consensus at US$81.9-million. Gross margin of 49.4% came in slightly below expectations.

The company generated US$74.1-million in operating cash flow and ended the quarter with US$226.2-million in cash and US$247.4-million in total debt, largely tied to its new credit facility established in late 2024.

Revenue growth was led by Green Thumb’s consumer packaged goods segment, with wholesale sales up 8.1% year-over-year and representing about 30% of total revenue. Retail revenue declined 1.0% from the prior year amid price compression in certain markets, though new store openings helped offset some of the pressure. Comparable-store sales were down 7.1% year-over-year on a base of 93 stores.

Gilmer also highlighted the company’s shareholder return program. The board authorized up to US$50-million in share repurchases through September 2026. Since September 2023, Green Thumb has repurchased roughly 13.5 million shares at an average price of US$7.95.

Following the results, Gilmer made only minor adjustments to his forecasts and reiterated Green Thumb as his top pick in the U.S. cannabis sector.

“GTI continues to post healthy financials with consistent revenue growth, solid margins, and strong cash generation,” he said.

Gilmer projects fiscal 2025 revenue of US$1.16-billion and Adjusted EBITDA of US$328.7-million, rising to US$1.19-billion and US$345.9-million, respectively, in fiscal 2026. His valuation is based on 11.5x 2026 EBITDA, discounted 15%.

“Given its track record, balance sheet strength, and reliable cash flow profile, we recommend accumulating shares at current levels,” Gilmer wrote.

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