Post SciTech acquisition, is Firefly Aerospace still a buy?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Suji Desilva maintained his “Buy” rating and US$40.00 target price on Firefly Aerospace (Firefly Aerospace Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FLY) in an Oct. 5  note, saying the company’s planned acquisition of SciTec strengthens its software and services capabilities and positions it for future U.S. national security opportunities.

Texas-based Firefly develops small- and medium-lift launch vehicles, in-space transportation systems, and spacecraft for commercial and government customers.

Firefly announced plans to acquire Princeton, N.J.–based SciTec for total consideration of US$855-million, including US$300-million in cash and the remainder in equity priced at US$50 per share, an 83% premium to the prior close, representing roughly 7.5% of existing shares outstanding. The cash portion will be funded through Firefly’s nearly US$1-billion cash balance and its US$125-million undrawn revolver.

SciTec generated US$164-million in revenue over the last 12 months and recently won a US$259-million early-2025 award.

Desilva estimated Firefly paid about 4.5× forward revenue, below spacetech comparables, and said the deal should enhance Firefly’s revenue run rate and gross margin profile by adding a complementary software and services layer to its existing launch and spacecraft hardware platform.

“SciTec brings a differentiated multi-sensor, multi-domain capability to the national security market that is more comparable to existing earth observation companies,” Desilva said. He noted SciTec’s strong traction with key U.S. Space Force programs, including multiple elements of the FORGE (Future Operational Resilient Ground Evolution) framework, which could be a precursor to future Golden Dome opportunities.

Desilva said the move aligns with a broader industry trend of spacetech companies expanding platform offerings to increase strategic relevance and valuation. He plans to update his model once the deal closes and is watching for updates regarding Firefly’s recent test stand anomaly and its impact on upcoming Alpha launches.

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