Is Gogo better than Starlink?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Scott Searle maintained a “Buy” rating and US$17.50 target price for Gogo (Gogo Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:GOGO) in a Sept. 1 update, saying the company’s long-term growth drivers outweigh near-term concerns around aircraft-on-line declines.

Broomfield, Colorado–based Gogo provides in-flight broadband internet and connectivity services for business aircraft.

Searle noted that while second-quarter results beat expectations, AoL fell by 172 aircraft to 6,730, following a 157 decline in the first quarter. He attributed the weakness to extended maintenance delays, ease of account suspension, FCC rip-and-replace activity, and competitive pressure from Starlink.

He called Starlink “a real competitor, but with limitations.” While the system advertises speeds of 50–250 Mbps and has a legitimate in-flight connectivity offering, Gogo retains meaningful advantages in installation costs, distribution and customer trust. Starlink requires a larger fuselage antenna with installation costs of more than US$300,000 and ongoing monthly service of about US$10,000, compared with lower-cost ATG and Galileo solutions.

Gogo also operates a global network of 148 dealers across 233 locations, with more than 48 supplemental type certificates covering roughly 22,000 aircraft, versus fewer than 10,000 for Starlink.

Most critically, Searle said mission-critical reliability remains a differentiator.

“This is not to be understated as Musk and Starlink behaviour, such as shutting off Ukraine has not been lost on potential customers,” he said. “We believe this is translating to in-bounds for Gogo and other non-Starlink satellite providers. Yes, there are Tesla and Musk fan-boys, but we believe that the distribution, reliability and performance of the emerging Galileo offerings at the high end, and 5G at the mid-to-low-end, positions Gogo for a return to growth and success.”

Looking ahead, he said stabilization should come as Gogo launches its 5G ATG service in the fourth quarter of 2025, continues FCC-funded upgrades, and advances the Galileo program, with HDX live and FDX targeted for the first half of 2026. He also pointed to lower capital expenditures, positioning the company for accelerating free cash flow in 2026 and 2027.

“At current levels, we view the valuation as derisked and would take advantage of the recent weakness as an entry point,” he said.

Searle forecasts Gogo will deliver Adjusted EBITDA of US$222.2-million on US$906.6-million of revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to US$238.9-million on US$933.3-million of revenue in 2026.

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