Gogo stock is a buy, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Scott Searle maintained his “Buy” rating and $16.50 price target on Gogo (Gogo Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:GOGO) in a June 12 report, citing accelerating growth from its Galileo satellite rollout, upcoming 5G launch, and new opportunities in military and government aviation markets.

Gogo provides in-flight connectivity and Wi-Fi services to the business aviation market through its North American air-to-ground network, serving about 5,700 aircraft.

Gogo is rolling out two key products: the Galileo LEO satellite service, targeting over 20,000 mid-to-large aircraft, and a long-delayed upgrade to its 5G air-to-ground network. The Galileo HDX system is already in service, and the faster FDX version is set to launch by the end of 2025.

“Post the close of the GOGO-Satcom Direct merger, the company provides a unique multi-orbit or multi-bearer broadband satellite solution (GEO, LEO & ATG in North America),” Searle said. “The hybrid constellation now provides global coverage (including China, which is not addressable by LEO constellations), with redundancy and best of breed technology (GEO bandwidth and LEO latency). In addition to 20k mid-sized and larger international commercial aircraft serviceable by GEO and Galileo, GOGO now addresses military/government markets in both domestic and international arenas (more below). Notably, the Satcom Direct integration remains ahead of schedule (synergies at the high end of expectations), with further upside potential.”

Searle said military and government markets could become a major growth area for Gogo, noting these opportunities aren’t yet factored into current forecasts. He pointed to strong potential across GEO, LEO, and ATG technologies, with multi-network systems offering global coverage for military aircraft.

“We estimate 2,000 to 2,500 aircraft could be addressable,” Searle said, adding that additional prospects exist for UAVs and private 5G networks. He also highlighted the growing investment in satellite infrastructure for defence, noting that funding for Proliferated LEO has jumped to $13-billion from $900-million.

Searle said Gogo’s long-delayed 5G system is now back on track, with a commercial launch expected by late Q4 2025 and potential applications in both civilian and military aviation.

“In general, 5G is ideal (antenna size and cost) for small aircraft (a majority of new builds that cost in the $3-5M range), which represent a majority of the North American market (~two-thirds of 25k aircraft),” he said. “Additionally, with retuned incentives and a large installed base (~7k AoL, with 68% Avance enabled, including 300 5G provisioned (antenna installed)), we believe that ATG is poised to stabilize existing recent declines and return to growth in 2026/27. Military opportunities (private networks, helicopters, UAV, etc.) provide further opportunities for growth, in our opinion.”

Searle expects Gogo to generate $218.7-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $901.5-million in revenue for fiscal 2025. He forecasts those figures will rise to $240.8-million in EBITDA on $940.5-million in revenue in fiscal 2026.

“With <35% NA penetration (<25% global), two major product cycles on track (Galileo and 5G), Satcom Direct merger synergies, and accelerating FCF (~$130M in 2026 post FY25 Galileo/5G investments), shares of GOGO remain attractive, in our opinion,” Searle said. “Importantly, with the overhang of 5G almost gone (silicon samples now available) and Galileo entering early commercialization (HDX today and FDX by year-end), we believe that GOGO is poised to return to Services growth in 2026+. Despite the 58% increase in shares since 1Q25 earnings, we believe the shares have further upside.” -30-