You should own Plug Power stock, this analyst says

Plug Power (Plug Power Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:PLUG) reported second-quarter 2025 revenue of $174.0-million, Adjusted EBITDA of negative $125.5-million, and a loss of $0.20 per share, Roth Capital Markets analyst Craig Irwin said August 12. The results beat Roth’s estimates of $140.0-million, negative $104.0-million, and a loss of $0.15, as well as consensus forecasts of $158.0-million, negative $113.6-million, and a loss of $0.15.

Irwin maintained a “buy” rating and 12-month price target of $3.50.

Gross margins were negative 30.7%, compared with Roth’s estimate of negative 35% and consensus at negative 41%. This was an improvement from negative 55.3% in Q1 2025 and negative 91.6% a year earlier, driven by lower service costs, improved equipment costs, and better hydrogen pricing. Management continues to target breakeven gross margins by Q4 2025.

Irwin said the $3.50 target is based on a 5-times multiple of 2025 revenue estimates, which he sees as reasonable given the successful generation of Green Hydrogen PTC in Georgia and improved visibility on gross margin gains in the second half of 2025.

Plug Power, headquartered in Latham, N.Y., makes fuel cell systems for forklift trucks used mainly in high-volume manufacturing and distribution facilities in North America.

“Plug posted 2Q25 revenue and gross margins ahead with improving momentum after the positive clarity gained in the OBBB,” Irwin said. “We will watch for a positive inflection in materials handling market activity during 3Q25 given that the incremental visibility for subsidies likely supports project expansion at existing sites, as well as the deployment at new sites. Cash needs seem adequately buffered by an expected inventory liquidation, release of PPA cash, and the outlook for incremental credit sales.

“We would be opportunistic buyers for gross margin breakeven by YE25 and revenue acceleration.”

Irwin said customer discussions have become more positive since the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law on July 4, 2025. The legislation provides clarity on the 45V and 48E investment tax credits. To qualify for 45V, projects must begin construction by Dec. 31, 2027, while the 48E 30 per cent ITC will be available from 2026 through 2032.

“The confirmed timelines give customers more of an investment horizon than previously expected,” he said. “Mgmt highlighted particularly constructive conversations in material handling, but noted benefits across the businesses.”

Irwin expects Plug Power to report 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of -$400.0-million on $733.9-million in revenue, versus prior estimates of -$350.0-million and $700.0-million. For 2026, he sees improvement to -$215.0-million on $850.0-million in revenue.

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