Will Bitcoin crash in September?

It’s far from a consensus, but some observers are sounding the alarm about the potential for a crash in Bitcoin’s price, with some analysts predicting a drop of up to 20% if certain key support levels fail to hold. Bitcoin, which has recently struggled to maintain momentum around the $60,000 mark, could see its price dip below $50,000 if current selling pressure continues, they says.

These recent takes come amid broader volatility in the cryptocurrency market, exacerbated by factors such as large-scale Bitcoin sales by institutional holders and general economic uncertainty.

The recent downturn follows a period of strong gains for Bitcoin earlier this year, in which the world’s best known cryptocurrency briefly reached new highs.

But the market now appears to be entering a correction phase, raising concerns about the sustainability of the cryptocurrency’s bullish run. Analysts are closely watching Bitcoin’s technical indicators, with many suggesting that further declines could occur if the current market dynamics persist.

One such expert who has weighed in is Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto trader with a large following on social media platforms. Van de Poppe has warned that Bitcoin could plummet to below $50,000 if it fails to maintain a key support level around $56,000. He suggests that the market could see a further steep decline if this level is breached​.

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, recently commented on the downturn in the cryptocurrency market, noting that the current sell-off is more severe than expected. Kuptsikevich’s analysis suggests that the recent price movements could signal the beginning of a more extended bear market for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies​.

And technical analyst Tom Crown has highlighted the emergence of a “death cross” in Bitcoin’s charts, where a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average, often signaling a bearish trend. Crown suggests that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim key support levels above $62,000, it could face a steep decline, possibly testing levels as low as $38,500.

Another observer, Alan Santana, has described a scenario where Bitcoin could experience a dramatic capitulation event, leading to a cascading effect across the entire cryptocurrency market. Santana predicts that this crash could unfold over one to three weeks, with Bitcoin potentially dipping to new lows before any recovery begins.

These warnings come amid broader concerns about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s recent gains and the overall volatility in the cryptocurrency market. While some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to potential bullish scenarios if key resistance levels are broken, the prevailing sentiment among these experts is one of caution as the market faces increasing selling pressure and technical challenges​.

How has Bitcoin performed in past Septembers?

Bitcoin has historically shown a mixed performance during the month of September, often experiencing volatility that leads to notable price swings. In many cases, September has been a challenging month for the cryptocurrency, with several instances of price declines. Analysts attribute this trend to various factors, including market corrections following summer rallies and broader economic uncertainties that tend to surface during this time of year.

For example, in September 2021, Bitcoin’s price fell by over 7%, a pattern consistent with its historical behavior during this month. Similarly, in September 2020, the cryptocurrency saw a decline of around 8% after a summer surge, reflecting a recurring trend where Bitcoin struggles to maintain upward momentum as the month progresses.

This pattern was also evident in September 2019, when Bitcoin’s price dropped by approximately 13%, contributing to the notion that the month often marks a period of consolidation or correction for the digital asset. However, despite these downturns, Bitcoin has occasionally bucked the trend, with September 2016 standing out as a month of modest gains, although such instances are relatively rare.

Overall, while Bitcoin’s performance in September has not been uniformly negative, it is generally characterized by higher volatility and a tendency toward price corrections, making it a month that traders often approach with caution.