Biofrontera has big upside, says Roth Capital

The stock is down considerably over the past 12 months, but Roth Capital Partners analyst Jonathan Aschoff sees Biofrontera Inc (Biofrontera Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:BFRI) making up that lost ground and more over the coming year. In a Monday update to clients, Aschoff reiterated a “Buy” rating on the stock and $20.00 target price, which at the time of publication represented a projected one-year return of 1,920 per cent.

Massachusetts-based Biofrontera Inc, a spin-out of German company Biofrontera Bioscience GmbH, announced on Monday the launch of a randomized, double-blind, vehicle-controlled multicentre Phase 3 safety and efficacy trial of its asset Ameluz and the BF-RhodoLED XL photodynamic therapy (PDT) lamp in the treatment of mild to moderate actinic keratosis (AK), a skin disease, on the extremities, neck and trunk. The study is one of four ongoing trials aimed at expanding the Ameluz-PDT label to include areas of AK treatment beyond the currently-approved face and scalp.

“This Phase 3 clinical study supports our strategy to gain market share by expanding the label for Ameluz-PDT beyond the treatment of AK on the face and scalp. Additionally, by employing the larger RhodoLED XL lamp investigators can target more lesions and reinforce the lamp’s utility ahead of commercial launch,” said Erica Monaco, CEO of Biofrontera Inc, in a press release.

The trial will see AK patients with four to 15 mild-to-moderate AK lesions receiving one treatment or, if required, a second treatment three months later, with patient monitoring over the following 12 months for the emergence of new lesions and for safety issues, while the trial’s primary endpoint is the total clearance of all lesions three months after the most recent treatment, with secondary endpoints of total clearance of all lesions three months after the last treatment by body region, percentage of lesions cleared overall and percentage cleared by body region and severity.

On the trial, Aschoff wrote, “We Initially expect 11 U.S. sites to enroll about 165 patients having 4-15 mild-to-moderate AK lesions in the treatment field. The new trial joins three ongoing trials to expand Ameluz-PDT’s label.”

Aschoff said his valuation on BFRI stems from a DCF analysis using a 15 per cent discount rate applied to all cash flows and the terminal value, which is based on a 5x multiple of his 2031 projected income of $174 million. Aschoff said his projections include potential future revenue from Ameluz in AK and topical medication Xepi for impetigo.