VitalHub scores a target raise from Paradigm Capital

Healthcare tech company VitalHub (VitalHub Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:VHI) almost doubled its revenue over the past 12 months, a sign of continuing tailwinds pushing organic growth, according to Paradigm Capital analyst Daniel Rosenberg. In an update to clients on Monday, Rosenberg reviewed the latest quarterly numbers from VitalHub and nudged up his target price on the stock.

VitalHub is a SaaS-based provider of visibility and communication tools for healthcare organizations, with over 300 clients across Canada, the EU, the Middle East, the US and Australia. The company’s products, which cover Electronic Health Records (EHR), case management, care coordination, patient flow and operational visibility and DOCit mobile apps, give healthcare administrators and providers ways to interact between traditionally siloed workers, departments and organizations.

The company reported on May 27 its first quarter 2021 results, showing revenue up 92 per cent year-over-year to $5.3 million and a net loss of $241,671 compared to a loss of $564,458 for the Q1 2020. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $865,834 or 16 per cent of revenue compared to $282,291 or ten per cent of revenue a year earlier. VitalHub’s annualized contract value (ACV) hit $15.9 million, up seven per cent sequentially.

Since the end of the first quarter, VitalHub announced a pair of acquisitions in UK-based mental health integration platform S12 Solutions and UK and Australian e-health provider of hospital queue management services Jayex Healthcare, marking VitalHub’s tenth and 11th acquisitions since 2017.

On the first quarter results, VitalHub CEO Dan Matlow said in a press release, “In Q1, the Covid-19 pandemic continued to be prevalent within our markets but we continued to see demand for our solutions as demonstrated by the addition of another $1,087,589 of organic contract value of recurring revenue in Q1.”

“When you add in the value of the recurring revenue from the Jayex Acute business and the S12 Solutions Ltd. acquisition that were completed subsequent to Q1 our ACV is over $19 million. This is now approaching the 80-per-cent level of total revenue which has been an important goal for us. In the last three quarters we have added $8,439,787 of ACV representing an annualized growth rate of 150 per cent (52 per cent or $2,914,460 is organic and 98 per cent or $5,525,327 is from acquisitions),” Matlow wrote.

VitalHub’s share price did very well in 2020, returning 63 per cent, and while the stock has been relatively flat for much of 2021 it started climbing mid-May and is now up 26 per cent year-to-date.

But Rosenberg expects more upside to come, saying in his report, “VitalHub Corp is seeing strong organic growth with its patient flow software solutions. The company has announced several new contracts across the U.K.’s NHS which are contributing to a growing recurring revenue base.”

“VHI has an attractive financial profile with double-digit organic growth, gross margins of ~75 per cent and strong secular tailwinds. We expect M&A to further contribute to growth given an active pipeline and strong balance sheet. Shares trade at a discount to healthcare tech peers and we expect the valuation discount to close as the company scales,” he wrote.

On the first quarter, VitalHub’s topline of $5.3 million compared to Rosenberg’s estimate of $4.9 million and the consensus call for $5.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA of $0.9 million was also mostly in line with expectations, where Rosenberg had called for $0.7 million and the Street’s call was for $0.8 million.

Rosenberg said VitalHub’s gross margin grew from 75.6 per cent in the Q4 2020 to 76 per cent on a better product mix, while the company’s ACV at $19.2 million provides strong visibility for revenue into 2021, the analyst said, and is “supportive of continued margin expansion as SaaS grows as a share of consolidated revenue.”

“At quarter-end, VitalHub had $26.6 million in cash and $0.7 million in debt,” Rosenberg wrote. “Management noted that it continues to focus on its M&A strategy with targets in Europe and the Middle East. Contribution from acquisitions has the potential to be meaningful to the company’s overall revenue run rate.”

Rosenberg has updated his forecast and is now calling for $22.2 million in revenue for 2021 and $25.4 million for 2022. On adjusted EBITDA, he is expecting $3.7 million in 2021 and $5.2 million in 2022. With the update, Rosenberg has reasserted his “Buy” rating with the revised target of $4.25 (previously $4.15), which at press time represented a projected one-year return of 25 per cent.

The analyst derived his target from a 5.5x multiple of his 2022 revenue estimate, saying that at its current status VHI is trading at 4.2x 2022 EV/Revenue, whereas the company’s peers in the Canadian tech consolidator and health-focused sectors are at 6.3x.

“As VitalHub continues to scale, we expect the valuation gap to disappear, given the attractive fundamentals of the company,” Rosenberg said.