Delta 9 Cannabis is a triple, says Mackie Research

After its recent capital raise, Mackie Research analyst Greg McLeish is holding steady on his rating for Delta 9 Cannabis (Delta 9 Cannabis News, Stock Quote, Chart TSXV:NINE), highlighting the company’s uniqueness as one of Canada’s only vertically integrated cannabis companies licensed for production, processing, distribution and retail operation.

Delta 9 on July 17 announced it had closed on a convertible debenture unit financing round with total gross proceeds of $11.8 million, with the company intending to use the majority of the money to fund expansion of its cultivation and processing facilities in Winnipeg and to expand its retail cannabis store footprint. The company currently operates an 85,000 sq ft facility in Winnipeg and is one of four producers awarded retail licenses in Manitoba (DN currently runs three and plans an additional one in the third quarter).

In a client update Monday, McLeish says that his thesis on the stock remains intact.

“Delta 9 generated approximately $2.4 million in revenue from its retail operations in Q1/19,” writes McLeish. “The majority of this revenue was generated from its St. Vital store which opened on October 17, 2018. If this store continues to perform at this level it could generate annual revenue just under $10 million. Increased supply of dried cannabis and the launch of edibles and concentrates (late Q4/19 or early Q1/20) should positively impact retail store sales starting in 2020.”

The analyst says that recently signed sales agreements are helping to underpin his revenue forecasts, with the company having signed five significant cannabis supply agreements, three of which are provincial supply agreements (Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta) and two are LPs (Auxly Cannabis and Canopy Growth).

McLeish has updated his forecasts to take into account the financing round and due to updated discussions with management. He is now calling for fiscal 2019 revenue and EBITDA of $39.0 million and negative $5.5 million, respectively, and fiscal 2020 revenue and EBITDA of $78.2 million and negative $16.8 million, respectively. The analyst is maintaining his “Buy” recommendation but dropping his target price from $4.00 to $3.00, which represents a projected return of 200 per cent at the time of publication.