Buy Green Thumb Industries stock for a double, says GMP Securities

US cannabis cultivator and dispensary operator Green Thumb Industries (Green Thumb Industries Stock Quote, Chart CSE:GTII) has made another acquisition, this one a producer in the state of Connecticut.

Valued at $80 million, the purchase could be five to ten per cent accretive for Green Thumb, says GMP Securities analyst Robert Fagan, who on Tuesday maintained his “Buy” recommendation and C$32.00 target price for GTII, representing a projected return of 106.5 per cent at the time of publication. (All figures in US dollars unless otherwise noted.)

The definitive agreement will see Green Thumb acquire Advanced Grow Labs LLC (AGL), one of four licensed growers in Connecticut, operating a 41,000 sq. ft. facility in West Haven, CT, and 46 per cent interest in a soon-to-be-built dispensary in Westport, CT.

“We are thrilled that AGL is joining the GTI team and look forward to continuing to serve Connecticut communities with high-quality cannabis products,” said GTI Founder and CEO Ben Kovler, in a press release. “AGL is a highly successful company in a limited license state with a fantastic management team that will continue to run the business. We are full steam ahead executing on GTI’s expansion plans as we look to create shareholder value.”

Fagan points out that Connecticut, whose governor elect Ned Lamont has rec legalization as a top priority, has over 30,000 medical cannabis patients and an estimated retail market of $100 million in 2018, with Fagan estimating AGL’s market share in Connecticut at 35 to 40 per cent.

“With AGL, GTI gains access to another attractive limited-licence medical market, boosting its platform to a total of 11 states now,” says Fagan. “This continues GTI’s recent growth streak with significant licence wins in NJ, PA, NV and CA which have expanded the company’s licence holdings by ~50 per cent.”

Fagan’s rating and target remain the same but his forecasts for 2019 and 2020 have been bumped up, now reading revenue and EBITDA in 2019 of $220.6 million (formerly $208.1 million) and $55.7 million (formerly $50.8 million), respectively, and revenue and EBITDA in 2020 of $462.1 million (formerly $442.1 million) and $182.2 million (formerly $171.5 million), respectively.