Aphria has a 115 per cent upside, says PI Financial

Cannabis licensed producer Aphria (Aphria Stock Quote, Chart, News: TSX:APHA) has a couple of new announcements that have helped solidify its distributions in Canada and in Germany, says Jason Zandberg of PI Financial, who on Thursday reiterated his “Buy” recommendation with a Speculative risk rating and $26.00 target price for APHA.

Aphria announced a 25.1 per cent investment in Schoneberg Hospital in Berlin, which Zandberg says will open the door to Aphria’s establishing a network of clinics and doctors in Germany, a country which made medical marijuana legal last year.

The other deal sees Great North Distributors (GND), the Canadian subsidiary of Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits, the largest wine and spirits distributor in North America, agree to serve as the manufacturer’s exclusive representative across Canada for Aphria’s line of cannabis products.

“With this agreement, Aphria has established an unparalleled sales network, and will hit the ground running from the very first day of legal adult-use sales,” said Jakob Ripshtein, Aphria CEO, in a press release. “Great North Distributors provides us with an experienced, dedicated team with a proven track record of driving sales and exceptional performance across all provinces. This deal will ensure that Aphria’s brands and products are proudly represented by cannabis retailers throughout the country.”

Zandberg says with GND, Aphria is getting an experienced parter with deep retail experience.

“GND is the largest alcohol manufacturer’s rep within the Canadian wine and spirits market and has a proven track record of driving sales in all provinces,” says the analyst in a corporate update to clients. “GND has a large network of reps to establish relationships with cannabis retail outlets and encourage beneficial product placement and in-store promotion (within the guidelines established in Canada).”

“We have not changed our forecasts but we believe that the GND partnership provides APHA will an experienced partner with deep retail experience. Although no financial details were provided, we estimate the cost will be 20 to 30 per cent less than if APH established its own network of reps,” he says. “We believe the German investment is a creative and low-cost method of potentially driving sales in the German market.”

Zandberg’s $26.00 target price represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 31x based on his FY20 estimates and represents a projected return on investment of 115 per cent at the time of publication.