GreenSpace Brands is undervalued, Beacon Securities says

Following the company’s second quarter results, Beacon Securities analyst Doug Cooper remains bullish on GreenSpace Brands (GreenSpace Brands Stock Quote, Chart, News: TSXV:JTR).

On Wednesday, GreenSpace Brands reported its second quarter, 2017 results. The company lost $439,000 on revenue of $15.4-million, a topline that was up 57 per cent over the same period last year.

“GreenSpace continues to believe that there are a number of fundamental trends occurring within both the global and North American food industries,” the company said in a press release. “These trends will continue to drive consumer demand for GSB brands and customers will continue to be attracted by the company’s innovation within the natural and organic marketplace. The Canadian natural and organic food markets generate annual sales of approximately $4.0-billion, and, although it has tripled over the past decade, it still only represents 1.7 per cent of total food sales in Canada, which is well below the 4.3-per-cent run rate of natural and organic foods in the United States. As a result of this, the company continues to be optimistic that anticipated market growth will continue to drive demand for the company’s acquired and developed brands and provide a lot of opportunity for further expansion into new product offerings. The company also believes that given the diverse mix of unique products that GreenSpace has been launching and acquiring, opportunities to enter new markets, like the recently announced Hong Kong distribution agreement, will continue to present themselves. GreenSpace is evaluating the U.S. market for some of its most unique items, particularly the newly launched Love Child snack line and Lil’ Shakes.”

Cooper, while noting that the company’s results bested his expectations, says they would have been even better had it not been for supply shortages. The analyst believes there are several catalysts on the horizon for GreenSpace, including the potential for larger sales in Quebec, a robust acquisition pipeline, and the increasing dominanance of its Love Child brand in the baby food category. The analyst believes the wind is at the company’s back.

“We believe the shares of JTR represent excellent value,” Cooper says. “Recent industry research conducted by Hershey shows that 68% of global consumers want to recognize every ingredient on a label and 40% wanted food and beverages to have as few ingredients as possible. At the same time, larger food and beverage brands that have historically dominated the market and seeing smaller, simpler brands outpacing them. We believe this is exactly what we are seeing with GreenSpace. Such facts are also leading to a number of industry transactions (eg. Cdn-based Daiya Foods) that have been executed at 3-6x sales.”

In a research update to clients today, Cooper maintained his “Buy” rating and one-year price target of $2.50 on GreenSpace Brands, implying a return of 105 per cent at the time of publication.

Cooper believes GreenSpace Brands will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-million on revenue of $66.1-million in fiscal 2018. He expects those numbers will improve to EBITDA of $4.3-million on a topline of $81.0-million the following year.