ATS stock is down 30% this year. What to do with it?

Stifel analyst Justin Keywood says ATS Corporation’s (ATS Corporation Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:ATS) Comecer business gives the company underappreciated exposure to nuclear medicine and radiopharmaceuticals.

In a Sept. 25  report, Keywood maintained his “Buy” rating and $44.00 target on ATS.

ATS shares are down about 30% year-to-date, compared with a 22% gain for automation peers, reflecting revenue headwinds from GLP-1 program normalization and the wind-down of electric vehicle work.

Keywood argued that those pressures have overshadowed Comecer, the nuclear medicine equipment business ATS acquired in 2019.

Comecer’s sales have doubled over the past five years to more than $200-million in 2024, and Keywood said the business is at a further inflection point following the July 2026 label expansion for Novartis’s Pluvicto.

The expansion doubled the eligible prostate cancer patient population for Pluvicto and was followed in September by the first FDA-approved glioma imaging drug.

Keywood said Pluvicto and Lutathera have validated the commercial opportunity in radiopharmaceutical therapeutics, with combined 2025 sales of about US$2.8-billion, up 35% year-over-year.

The analyst noted that M&A in the sector has exceeded US$16-billion since 2024, while all top-15 global pharmaceutical companies now have radiopharmaceutical investments.

Keywood said Comecer supplies mission-critical equipment infrastructure for the sector, including hot cells used to handle radioactive materials.

Customer feedback suggested Comecer holds 60% to 65% market share in hot cells, with strong demand, one-year lead times for customized equipment and limited alternatives at scale.

Keywood said tariffs are not expected to affect purchasing decisions because Comecer’s equipment is mission-critical and represents a relatively small share of radiopharmaceutical revenue.

He also said the regional supply-chain model for radiopharmaceuticals supports equipment demand, since products can rapidly decay and often need to be delivered within driving distance rather than by air.

ATS’s combined nuclear franchise, including energy, represents about 35% of backlog compared with about 17% of sales.

Keywood said that exposure should help drive results beyond current headwinds and support a re-rating.

The analyst said he expects ATS will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $413.0-million on revenue of $2.97-billion in fiscal 2026. He expects Adjusted EBITDA of $400.9-million on revenue of $2.97-billion in fiscal 2027.

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