Black Swan Graphene has a 200% upside, this analyst says

Paradigm Capital analyst Marvin Wolff says Black Swan Graphene’s (Black Swan Graphene Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:SWAN) Q2 results show the company now has meaningful revenue as it scales its graphene production platform.

In a Sept. 21 update, Wolff maintained his “Buy” rating and $2.50 target on Black Swan.

Black Swan reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.75-million, Adjusted EBITDA of negative $605,000 and a loss of four cents per share. Wolff had expected revenue of $1.25-million, Adjusted EBITDA of negative $2.1-million and a loss of five cents per share.

The company is a Canadian bulk graphene producer targeting industrial markets. Its patented process is scaling to 140 tonnes per year, with a longer-term goal of 10,000 tonnes.

Wolff said the acquisition of Falpaco Rubber and Plastic gives Black Swan an in-house injection moulding business and a captive customer base for graphene-enhanced products.

Falpaco produces plastic parts using polymers including TPU, nylon, polypropylene and polyethylene, which are areas where Black Swan has adapted its graphene formulations.

Falpaco currently generates about $7.4-million of revenue and roughly $1.5-million of EBITDA. The $12.6-million purchase price includes $4.1-million of cash, $6.7-million of debt and $1.8-million of Black Swan shares.

Wolff said the deal gives Black Swan access to free cash flow and more control over graphene adoption in composite components.

Black Swan also has distribution partnerships with Hubron International, Broadway Colours and Modern Dispersions for its graphene-enhanced masterbatch material.

The company is seeking FDA approval for a food-contact packaging application with a sustainable packaging customer, with approval expected in the second half of 2026.

Wolff said Black Swan’s graphene capacity is now 140 tonnes per year. During Q2, the company installed an in-line real-time quality monitoring system for its graphene nanoplatelets.

The analyst’s $2.50 target is based on a 10 times EV/EBITDA multiple on his 2030 EBITDA estimate of $27.6-million, discounted by 10% annually.

Wolff expects Black Swan to generate negative Adjusted EBITDA of $2.9-million on revenue of $5.5-million in fiscal 2026, improving to negative Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7-million on revenue of $10.4-million in fiscal 2027.

-30-