Why does Alberta lead the country in job growth?

RBC economist Salim Zanzana says Alberta has led Canada in job creation this year, but the gains have come mainly from health care, social assistance and public administration rather than energy.

In an Aug. 6 report, Zanzana noted that Alberta employment was up about 79,000 positions in June from a year earlier, a 3% increase that outpaced every province except Prince Edward Island.

Nearly three-quarters of Alberta’s job gains came from full-time positions, with most of the growth in the private sector.

Zanzana said the energy sector continues to benefit from strong production and export demand, but that has not translated into meaningful hiring. Employment in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction was little changed from a year earlier.

He said technology, automation and operating efficiencies have allowed energy producers to increase output without adding jobs at the same pace as in previous cycles.

Instead, Alberta added 55,000 health care and social assistance jobs from a year earlier, one of the largest annual increases for the sector on record.

Zanzana said the increase partly reflects pressure from rapid population growth. Alberta’s population rose by more than 570,000 between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026, a gain of more than 13% and the fastest among provinces.

That growth strained health care and other public services, with health care staffing not keeping pace with population growth from 2022 to 2025. More recently, slower population growth and stronger hiring have helped per-capita health care staffing recover.

Despite strong job creation, Alberta’s unemployment rate has remained elevated, hovering between 6.5% and 7% in recent months. Zanzana said that reflects labour force growth outpacing job creation, rather than underlying economic weakness.

The economist said the imbalance is easing as demographic growth slows. Alberta’s population growth fell to 0.9% year-over-year in Q1 2026 from more than 4% in 2024, while the unemployment rate has declined from above 8% in August 2025.

Net international migration turned negative in Alberta in Q1 2026 for the first time since Q3 2020, while interprovincial inflows from provinces such as B.C. and Ontario have also moderated.

RBC expects Alberta’s unemployment rate to fall to 6.5% by the end of 2026 and 6% by the end of 2027 as population growth normalizes.

Zanzana said demand for health care and public service workers should remain resilient because of population aging, even as broader demographic pressures ease.

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