This analyst just raised his price target on Cinemark

Roth Capital analyst Eric Handler raised his 12-month price target on Cinemark Holdings (Cinemark Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:CNK) to $37.00 from $36.00 in an April 23 earnings preview, maintaining a “Buy” rating as he sees the company benefiting from a stronger box-office backdrop in 2026 and 2027.

“Following a better-than-expected 1Q box office, we believe Cinemark remains in good position to benefit from an improved movie slate in 2026 and in 2027,” Handler said. “As the box office improves, the company should see margin expansion, higher FCF, and increased capital returns.”

Handler said first-quarter industry box office outperformed his expectations, rising 21.8% versus his previous 10.6% forecast. As a result, he raised his first-quarter estimates to $634-million in revenue and $82-million in Adjusted EBITDA, up from $592-million and $59-million, both above consensus. He expects U.S. and Latin American circuit revenue to rise 20% and five%, respectively, with Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 12.9% from 6.7% a year earlier.

For the second quarter, Handler forecasts North American box office revenue to slip about 2% to $2.625-billion, though he said that may prove conservative given a solid start to the quarter. He pointed to early momentum from upcoming releases, including Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2, while noting some concern around the Memorial Day opening for The Mandalorian & Grogu.

Handler also said Cinemark’s balance sheet leaves room for higher capital returns. The company ended 2025 with $344-million in cash and he estimates it will generate $322-million in free cash flow this year. With no debt maturities until 2028 and net debt projected to fall below 2.0x by year-end, he said Cinemark is positioned for more dividends and buybacks. After repurchasing $75-million of shares in the fourth quarter, the company still had about $225-million remaining under its repurchase program.

“In addition, we wouldn’t be surprised if the dividend is raised towards the end of the year,” Handler said.

Handler values the stock at 8.0x his 2026 estimated Adjusted EBITDA. He expects Cinemark to generate $724.1-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $3.44-billion in revenue in fiscal 2026, improving to $791.7-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $3.64-billion in revenue in fiscal 2027.

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