The analyst just launched coverage of Tiny with a “Buy”

Roth Capital Markets analyst Richard Baldry initiated coverage of Tiny Ltd. (Tiny Ltd. Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:TINY) with a “Buy” rating and C$10.00 target, saying the company’s new leadership, improving profitability and more disciplined operating focus have materially improved its risk-reward profile heading into 2026.

In an April 17 report, Baldry said Tiny’s management changes in mid-2024 have helped simplify the company’s operations and capital structure while sharpening its focus on cost control, growth and portfolio optimization.

“We believe the installation of new leadership in mid-2024 has improved TINY’s focus on simplifying its operations and capital structure in a way that offers a path to material shareholder enhancement ahead,” he said.

Baldry said Tiny’s renewed focus has already started to show up in the numbers, with record run-rate Adjusted EBITDA of $40.0-million in the second half of 2025. He noted that adjusted operating profit had fallen from $32.3-million in 2022 to $15.6-million in 2023 before new CEO Jordan Taub and CFO Mike McKenna joined in 2024. Since then, he said, the company has sold non-core assets, reduced debt and worked to improve the cost structure and growth outlook of its remaining businesses, resulting in 2025 adjusted operating profit of $35.1-million even after the spinout of We Work Remotely.

Baldry said Tiny’s acquisition strategy remains a differentiator, with the company targeting opportunities across sectors and in less competitive geographies such as Canada and New Zealand. He said that broader sourcing approach should allow Tiny to buy assets at reasonable valuations and then improve them through operational discipline and executive oversight. He also pointed to Tiny’s 21.4% stake in Tiny Fund I as an additional source of longer-term value.

The analyst added that internal adoption of AI tools could provide further earnings leverage over the next one to three years by lowering costs and limiting the need for new hiring. In his view, that creates upside to current forecasts if expenses remain flatter than expected.

With the shares down 46% from their 52-week high, Baldry said Tiny trades at only 7.4 times the second-half 2025 Adjusted EBITDA run rate, despite record revenue and EBITDA in that period. He said his C$10.00 target is based on 10 times his 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast of $41.2-million on revenue of $216.3-million, assuming steady net debt.

Baldry expects Tiny to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $47.5-million on revenue of $232.6-million in fiscal 2027.

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