Avante is a buy, this analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Gabriel Leung reiterated a “Buy” rating and $2.25 target on Avante (Avante Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:XX)  based on 15x fiscal 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA, after marketing the company’s executive team.

Toronto-based Avante provides high-end security systems and services for residential, largely GTA-based, and commercial customers.

Leung said Avante has the pieces in place to sustain about 10% organic revenue growth while improving its EBITDA margin from the 9.1% reported last quarter. He expects growth to be led by Avante Black, which serves executive clients, and NSSG, its global risk and crisis management business. Together, those units account for about 30% of revenue and are growing organically at 20% to 30%.

Leung said Avante could also add growth through acquisitions, U.S. franchising and its MAST mobile surveillance tower business. He believes the company is close to a couple of acquisitions, supported by $17-million of available liquidity, including $5-million in cash and a $12-million credit facility.

He also said Avante is exploring a U.S. franchise model in New York and Florida, under which it would provide technology, monitoring and security personnel networks in exchange for an upfront fee and a share of gross revenue.

“While we and management would agree that the MAST sales cycle has taken longer than expected, we also believe that the pilots have gone well and that the prospects for a large deployment remain good,” Leung said. “In our opinion, the announcement of a larger MAST win could be a very positive catalyst for the stock.”

Leung expects Avante to generate $2.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $36.3-million in revenue in fiscal 2026, improving to $3.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $41.3-million in revenue in fiscal 2027.

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