Should you sell your Canadian Solar stock?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Philip Shen lowered his price target on Canadian Solar (Canadian Solar Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:CSIQ) to $15 from $30 while maintaining a “Neutral” rating after what he described as a fourth-quarter miss and a weak first-quarter outlook.

In a March 22 note, Shen said Canadian Solar reported softer-than-expected fourth-quarter results, with pressure from delayed project sales, lower shipment volumes and weaker margins.

The company shipped about 4.3 gigawatts of modules in Q4, below both Street and Roth expectations, while battery shipments of roughly 2.1 gigawatt-hours also came in slightly light as tariff-related volatility pushed some volumes into 2026. Revenue was about $1.2-billion, missing consensus by roughly 11%, while gross margin of about 10.2% fell well short of expectations due to project asset impairments and inventory write-downs.

Shen said the first-quarter outlook was also weak. Canadian Solar guided to midpoint Q1 revenue of about $1.0-billion, well below prior expectations, with lower module and battery shipments and a gross margin around 14%.

Despite that, management reiterated its full-year 2026 shipment targets of about 27.5 gigawatts of modules and 15 gigawatt-hours of batteries.

Shen said the near-term challenge is the U.S. market, where module volumes and margins are expected to remain pressured by limited supply of non-PFE solar cells and higher input costs. To address that, Canadian Solar is expanding its U.S. manufacturing footprint to about 6.3 gigawatts of cell capacity and 10 gigawatts of module capacity through 2026.

He added that the company’s U.S. cell facility will focus on heterojunction technology, which could help reduce intellectual property risk tied to First Solar’s Section 337 case.

While Canadian Solar restructured its U.S. assets in late 2025, Shen said he remains cautious until there is more clarity on PFE rules and the broader U.S. policy backdrop.

As a result, Roth lowered its 2026 and 2027 forecasts materially. Shen now expects Canadian Solar to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $629.0-million on revenue of $6.90-billion in 2026, improving to $980.0-million on revenue of $8.15-billion in 2027. Those figures are down sharply from prior estimates of $947.0-million and $1.17-billion in EBITDA on $8.24-billion and $9.36-billion in revenue, respectively.

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