Plug Power stock has big upside, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Craig Irwin reiterated his “Buy” rating and $3.50 12-month price target on Plug Power (Plug Power Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:PLUG) following fourth-quarter results that showed improving margins despite a restructuring-heavy quarter.

Plug reported Q4 revenue of $225.2-million, with gross margins turning positive at 2.4%, a significant improvement from negative margins in recent quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was ($45.5)-million. Adjusted EPS of ($0.06) excluded approximately $610.0-million in impairment and restructuring-related charges, as well as a $200.0-million non-cash warrant inducement charge.

Irwin said the company’s outlook for approximately $300.0-million in cash burn in 2026 compares favourably to $647.0-million used in 2025 and appears manageable given $200.0-million in expected PPA cash release, $275.0-million in pending asset sales and $369.0-million in unrestricted cash exiting Q4.

“We reiterate our $3.50 target using a 6x multiple on ’26E revenue estimates,” Irwin said. The analyst noted that improving gross margins and restructuring progress support better near-term visibility.

Management expects 2026 revenue growth to be directionally similar to 2025, with roughly two-thirds of revenue weighted to the second half of the year. Materials handling is expected to account for 30% to 40% of 2026 revenue, supported by demand from customers including Amazon and Walmart, while electrolyzers are expected to represent roughly 25% of total revenue.

Irwin trimmed his 2026 revenue estimates to reflect a more tapered growth trajectory but expects improved profitability, with key milestones including positive EBITDA in Q4 2026, operating income by year-end 2027 and profitability by 2028.

Irwin forecasts Plug will generate ($195.0)-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $800.0-million in fiscal 2026.

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